Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 670
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 670 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0670
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0616 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 162316Z - 170015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT IS INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL
   KS TO THE SOUTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE IS
   LIKELY IN THE NEXT HOUR.

   DISCUSSION...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION EARLIER
   TODAY IS DRAPED FROM SWRN KS NEWD TO E-CNTRL KS. THE AIRMASS ALONG
   AND TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IS DESTABILIZING...AS TEMPERATURES
   HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AMIDST DEWPOINTS IN THE
   UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. LATEST RAP MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS MLCAPE HAS
   INCREASED INTO THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE. VWP FROM THE KICT RADAR
   SHOWS A VEERING AND STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT...WITH
   0-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 200 M2/S2. 

   CURRENT STORM MODE ACROSS S-CNTRL KS IS MESSY...WITH NUMEROUS
   LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ADVANCING QUICKLY NWD AS A
   LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT
   ONGOING ACTIVITY IN N-CNTRL OK WILL MOVE NEWD ALONG THE RESIDUAL
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. IF THESE THUNDERSTORMS IN OK CONTINUE TO
   STRENGTHEN...THEY WOULD POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS...ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
   THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT...TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE IS
   LIKELY SOON.

   ..GLEASON/HART.. 05/16/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...

   LAT...LON   37049831 37239833 37469836 37909749 38109599 37039598
               37049831 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 17, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities