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Mesoscale Discussion 670
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0670
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0232 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AND FAR WEST TX / SERN NM

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 231932Z - 232100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
   THIS AFTERNOON.  A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL LIKELY POSE AN
   ISOLD LARGE HAIL/SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES AN OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY FROM BGS TO 20 MI NW INK AND ANOTHER BOUNDARY FROM 35 MI SW
   INK TO 40 MI E ROW.  A WEAK LOW HAS FORMED 30 MI S OF INK.  ELY
   COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS AIDED IN MAINTAINING 50S
   DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF SERN NM AND SWRN AND FAR W TX.  STRONG
   HEATING AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW OVER AZ WILL PROMOTE
   ADDITIONAL ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INVOF THE SACRAMENTO MTNS
   NWWD INTO CNTRL NM.  FARTHER S...OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS WILL SERVE
   TO FOCUS ISOLD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. 
   ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED
   BOUNDARIES WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

   ADEQUATE MID-LEVEL FLOW FOR ORGANIZED STORMS /PER EPZ AND MAF
   88D-VWP DATA/ OF 25-30 KT ATOP LOW-LEVEL ELY/S WILL SUPPORT SOME
   ORGANIZATION WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  WEAK
   TO MODERATE BUOYANCY /500-2000 J PER KG MLCAPE/ WILL ASSIST IN THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONGER CORES AND POTENTIALLY RESULT IN
   SEVERAL INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUST
   PRIMARILY DURING THE 20-02Z TIMEFRAME.

   ..SMITH/CORFIDI.. 05/23/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   30240437 32480603 34030641 34890586 34760526 34030473
               32890393 32450350 30680291 30270315 30080359 30240437 

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Page last modified: May 23, 2014
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