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Mesoscale Discussion 670
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0670
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0626 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL NM/NORTHWEST TX
   INCLUDING MUCH OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 186...

   VALID 212326Z - 220130Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 186
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THREATS FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS REMAIN LIKELY
   ACROSS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 186 AS STORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE TO
   THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OFF THE DRYLINE.

   DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
   LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS
   EVENING NEAR THE DRYLINE...WHICH EXTENDED FROM ALONG THE KS/CO
   BORDER AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FAR WESTERN OK AND FAR
   NORTHWEST TX PANHANDLES...AND TRAILING INTO SOUTHEAST NM.  AT
   2305Z...THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE LOCATED WITHIN WW 186 /FROM HARTLEY
   COUNTY TX TO ROOSEVELT COUNTY NM.  THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG AND SUFFICIENTLY
   SHEARED /EFFECTIVE SRH OF 30-40 KT/...WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTORS
   ORIENTED NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRYLINE...SUGGESTING STORMS
   WILL BE DISCRETE.  IN ADDITION...THE HODOGRAPH IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT
   ABOVE LOW-LEVEL CURVATURE SUPPORTIVE OF SPLITTING STORMS. 
   INVERTED-V THERMAL PROFILES AND SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF
   25-35 DEGREES SUPPORT A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS...WHILE MIDLEVEL
   LAPSE RATES OF 7.7.5 C/KM SUPPORT A HAIL THREAT.

   THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CLUSTER IN WINKLER COUNTY TX IS MOVING TO
   THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...AND IF IT CAN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY...WILL
   REACH THE SOUTHERN PART OF WW 186 BY 01Z.

   ..PETERS.. 05/21/2016


   ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   33760379 35090396 35680329 36060343 36260391 36970390
               36990096 34800112 34550147 32970155 32970311 33430330
               33760379 

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Page last modified: May 22, 2016
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