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Mesoscale Discussion 672
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0672
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0441 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 232141Z - 232245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A LOCALIZED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
   WILL EXIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF ERN ND. A WW IS
   NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF TSTMS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER STUTSMAN
   AND BARNES COUNTIES ND HAS EXHIBITED THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING SVR
   HAIL /PER RECENT WDSS-2 MESH ALGORITHM OUTPUT/...WHICH IS SUPPORTED
   BY A RECENT REPORTS OF ONE INCH HAIL. THESE TSTMS DEVELOPED ALONG
   THE ERN PERIPHERY OF A NARROW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS CHARACTERIZED
   BY NEAR-60 F SFC DEWPOINTS. STRONG HEATING ACROSS THE AREA BENEATH
   STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IS YIELDING ESTIMATED MLCAPE VALUES OF
   1000-1500 J/KG PER RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS. 

   THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR PRECLUDING A MORE ROBUST SVR THREAT IS THE
   WEAKNESS IN MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS
   VEERING TO WLY IN THE MIDLEVELS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN
   MARGINAL STORM ORGANIZATION. ADDITIONALLY...THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF
   THE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED AS TSTMS ENCOUNTER A DRIER AND LESS
   UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH EWD PROGRESSION.

   ..ROGERS/GUYER.. 05/23/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

   LAT...LON   46999747 46359796 46059923 46019997 46070040 46360046
               46969997 47379910 47689856 47559790 46999747 

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Page last modified: May 23, 2014
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