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Mesoscale Discussion 674
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0674
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0608 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SC INTO SERN NC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 178...179...

   VALID 232308Z - 240045Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   178...179...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATCH AREAS THROUGH 01Z. EITHER A
   NEW WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED OR A LOCAL EXTENSION IN TIME MAY BE
   NECESSARY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 178.

   DISCUSSION...AS OF 2250Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A
   CLUSTER OF SEVERE TSTMS --INCLUDING SUPERCELLS-- OVER UPSTATE SC
   /FROM JUST SE OF SPA TO AROUND 40 S OF CLT/ WITH A SECONDARY
   GROUPING OF STORMS ALONG THE SC COAST /NEAR CRE/. THESE STORMS HAVE
   EXHIBITED SEVERAL SPLITS OWING TO THE PRESENCE OF A RELATIVELY
   STRAIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILE AS SAMPLED BY AREA VAD DATA. HAIL UP
   TO BASEBALL SIZE HAS BEEN RECENTLY REPORTED WITH A STORM OVER
   LANCASTER COUNTY NC WITH OTHER REPORTS OF GOLFBALL-SIZE HAIL AND
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

   THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A
   HOT...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES UPWARDS OF
   2000-3000 J/KG. AND EVEN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL OVER
   THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY WILL PERSIST WITHIN A
   KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR TO
   MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY
   HAZARD...THOUGH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE SHOULD
   AGGREGATING STORM-SCALE OUTFLOWS SUPPORT UPSCALE GROWTH OF STORMS
   INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS.

   ..MEAD.. 05/23/2014


   ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

   LAT...LON   34918349 35268304 35498205 35448162 35098109 34978088
               34738049 34837917 34797875 34687834 34667780 34497761
               34157747 33687782 33707858 33187900 32577970 32528022
               32888033 33098053 33208095 33128128 33358220 33798247
               34318310 34598359 34918349 

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Page last modified: May 24, 2014
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