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Mesoscale Discussion 674
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0674
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0929 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST TX INCLUDING PART OF THE TX
   PANHANDLE...AND INTO THE OK PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 186...

   VALID 220229Z - 220330Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 186
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...STORMS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE REST OF THIS
   EVENING...THOUGH STRONGER ISOLATED STORMS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR
   LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  LOCAL WFO WATCH EXTENSION IN TIME
   MAY BE NEEDED IF A FEW STORMS ARE ABLE TO SUSTAIN THEIR INTENSITY.

   DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOW STORM COVERAGE
   WITHIN WW 186 HAS DECREASED FAIRLY MARKEDLY...WITH THE STRONGEST
   STORMS LOCATED ALONG THE BORDER OF DALLAM AND HARTLEY COUNTIES TX
   AND IN DEAF SMITH COUNTY TX.  SURFACE-BASED INHIBITION IS
   INCREASING...GIVEN THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WHILE A MODIFIED
   00Z AMA SOUNDING WITH 02Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONFIRMS THE INCREASE
   OF INHIBITION.  THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
   SURFACE-BASED STORMS AND THE OVERALL SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT WILL BE
   LOW...ESPECIALLY WITH FURTHER BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING.  LOCAL WFO
   WATCH EXTENSION IN TIME MAY BE NEEDED IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE TX
   PANHANDLE.  OTHERWISE...THE SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT FOR THE REST OF
   THE COUNTIES WITHIN WW 186 SHOULD EXPIRE AT 03Z.

   ..PETERS.. 05/22/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   32980238 33690291 34890299 36350268 36680216 36740141
               36410097 34920111 34630148 33640160 32960163 32980238 

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Page last modified: May 22, 2016
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