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Mesoscale Discussion 674
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0674
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0730 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 170030Z - 170200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF ERN OK. TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
   SO IS LIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED
   IN/JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE EXTENDING FROM S-CNTRL KS TO WRN N TX IS
   PROGRESSING EWD. ACROSS ERN OK...THE AIRMASS HAS NOT BEEN
   CONTAMINATED BY EARLIER CONVECTION. THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM NORMAN OK
   IS LIKELY REPRESENTATIVE WHAT THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE ACROSS ERN OK
   WILL BECOME OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2350
   J/KG...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 60 KT...AND EFFECTIVE SRH IN EXCESS
   OF 300 M2/S2. 

   THIS VERY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT
   THE CONTINUED MAINTENANCE OF SEVERE/TORNADIC STORMS ACROSS CNTRL
   OK...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF ERN OK. IN ADDITION...
   SHOWERS/NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY FORMED FROM
   GARVIN/MURRY COUNTIES NEWD TO OSAGE COUNTY OK. WITH A MINIMAL CAP
   NOTED IN THE 00Z NORMAN SOUNDING...THIS ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE IN
   INTENSITY AND EVENTUALLY BECOME SEVERE. 

   THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO CONVECTIVE MODE FURTHER E...AS ONGOING
   SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS COULD GROW UPSCALE INTO AN ORGANIZED MCS
   WITH TIME. REGARDLESS...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS INCREASING
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN OK...AND TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE IS LIKELY
   WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

   ..GLEASON/HART.. 05/17/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...

   LAT...LON   34739496 34689584 35309593 35349638 36139653 36239677
               36569680 36969669 36979464 36509464 35439446 34739496 

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Page last modified: May 17, 2015
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