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Mesoscale Discussion 675
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0675
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1205 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EAST NM/WEST AND NORTHWEST TX INTO THE TX/OK
   PANHANDLES

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 220505Z - 220730Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
   THREATS WITH TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF RECENT STORM DEVELOPMENT IN
   NORTHEAST NM APPROACHING THE TX PANHANDLE AND IN FAR SOUTHEAST NM
   AND WEST-CENTRAL TX.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE TO THE
   EAST/NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

   DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED TWO MIDLEVEL SHORT
   WAVE TROUGHS TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
   PLAINS.  ONE WAS MOVING TOWARD NORTHEAST NM...WHILE THE SECOND WAS
   MOVING THROUGH FAR WEST TX.  FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO EACH OF
   THESE TROUGHS AND 40-45-KT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS WEST
   TX...RESULTING IN AN INFLOW OF MODERATE INSTABILITY INTO THE ONGOING
   STORMS IN NORTHEAST NM AND IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST NM/TX BORDER
   AREA...SUGGEST STORMS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. 
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 25-30 KT SUGGESTS STORMS WOULD TEND TO BE
   MULTICELLULAR...THOUGH THE NORTHERN STORMS APPEAR TO HAVE FORMED AS
   AN EASTWARD-MOVING BOUNDARY MERGED WITH A RETREATING
   DRYLINE...ENHANCING CONVERGENCE/ASCENT ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES.

   ..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 05/22/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   34750386 35920343 36830222 36840163 36230129 35160129
               33670166 32780192 32150223 31990273 32020335 32440381
               33300374 34260375 34750386 

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Page last modified: May 22, 2016
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