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Mesoscale Discussion 676
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0676
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0856 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR W TX...SERN NM

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 180...

   VALID 240156Z - 240300Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 180
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW 180.
   ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE
   WATCH AREA INTO THE LATE EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SEVERAL STRONG TO SVR TSTMS
   ONGOING ACROSS SERN INTO CNTRL NM...WITH THE MOST NOTABLE FEATURING
   A LEFT-MOVING SUPERCELL WHICH HAS MERGED WITH ADDITIONAL SURROUNDING
   STORMS ACROSS EDDY COUNTY NM. WDSS-2 MESH ALGORITHM OUTPUT CONTINUES
   TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THESE STORMS...AS
   SUPPORTED BY A RECENT STORM REPORT OF 1.75 INCH HAIL. RECENT RADAR
   TRENDS SUGGEST THIS CLUSTER WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ENEWD ACROSS
   FAR SERN NM OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS...WHERE SLIGHTLY MORE CINH MAY BE
   PRESENT IN THE WAKE OF A WWD PROGRESSING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WEAKER
   INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA INTO
   CNTRL NM GIVEN A COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH MAY YIELD A SLIGHTLY
   LESSER RELATIVE SVR THREAT...BUT TSTMS ARE STILL EXHIBITING THE
   POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.

   INTO THE LATE EVENING...A BAND OF ASCENT EMANATING FROM THE
   LARGE-SCALE SWRN CONUS TROUGH APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING
   EWD...COINCIDING WITH AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION FROM NEAR ELP NWD
   INTO CNTRL NM. RECENT WRF-HRRR RUNS INDICATE A FURTHER UPTICK IN
   TSTMS IS POSSIBLE INTO THE LATE EVENING...SHIFTING EWD INTO SERN NM
   AND THE TX TRANS-PECOS. A SVR THREAT COULD PERSIST WITH THIS
   ACTIVITY DESPITE THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY MOIST TO SUPPORT CONVECTION ROOTED NEAR THE
   SFC.

   ..ROGERS.. 05/24/2014


   ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   30380486 31360614 33250667 35040655 35400552 35390387
               34740356 33880339 33080333 32730295 31970245 31440225
               31080238 29960248 30380486 

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Page last modified: May 24, 2014
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