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Mesoscale Discussion 677
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0677
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1053 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NM INTO FAR WRN TX AND THE TX PERMIAN
   BASIN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 180...

   VALID 240353Z - 240530Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 180
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
   STORMS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. GIVEN THE ISOLATED
   NATURE OF THE THREAT...AN ADDITIONAL WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...AS OF 0340Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A
   SSW-NNE-ORIENTED BAND OF TSTMS FROM EL PASO COUNTY TX INTO GUADALUPE
   AND SAN MIGUEL COUNTIES IN NM WITH OTHER MORE ISOLATED STORMS
   OBSERVED OVER LEA COUNTY NM INTO ANDREWS COUNTY TX. LATEST MODEL
   GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE BAND WILL
   INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE WHILE SPREADING EWD THROUGH ERN NM DURING
   THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/DCVA INCREASES
   AHEAD OF A VORTICITY MAXIMUM ROTATING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE PARENT
   UPPER TROUGH.

   WHILE STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE LIKELY BEING REPLENISHED FROM
   OFF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU...THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BEEN STABILIZED BY
   THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND NOCTURNAL COOLING. AS
   SUCH...ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. HOWEVER...
   THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING
   AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 180 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 06Z.

   ..MEAD.. 05/24/2014


   ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   32000634 33660637 33660607 33820605 33830591 34270592
               34260643 35010649 35040527 35240531 35220412 34610413
               34610392 33580352 33580306 32980308 32960220 32090218
               32080179 31650176 31650128 31070128 31080234 30690179
               30620236 30040259 30670345 30400378 30670506 31360600
               32000634 

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Page last modified: May 24, 2014
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