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Mesoscale Discussion 678
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0678
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0357 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN SD AND WRN/CNTRL ND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 222057Z - 222230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BY 21-22Z...WITH
   INCREASING COVERAGE INTO THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE
   CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WATCH ISSUANCE
   MAY BE REQUIRED.

   DISCUSSION...AT 2045Z...CU WAS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN THE VICINITY
   OF A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN ND...AND ALSO FROM N-CNTRL SD W OF
   ABR INTO S-CNTRL ND...WHERE SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES SOME ENHANCED
   CONFLUENCE WHICH MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   GENERATED BY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. 

   BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED MODEST DESTABILIZATION TO
   OCCUR...WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS WRN ND TO
   THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE ACROSS N-CNTRL SD. STRONG SSWLY MIDLEVEL
   AHEAD ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
   OVERSPREADING THE WARM SECTOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
   RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORM
   STRUCTURES. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND/SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A MIX OF
   STORM MODES...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED TO BE THE
   PRIMARY HAZARDS. 

   WHILE STORMS COULD BE RATHER ISOLATED IN THE SHORT TERM...AN
   INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY
   EARLY EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...AN INCREASINGLY LINEAR MODE IS
   EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND. A BRIEF
   TORNADO OR TWO ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY AS LOW-LEVEL
   SHEAR INCREASES TOWARD EVENING.

   ..DEAN/HART.. 05/22/2016


   ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

   LAT...LON   44560205 45250253 46300266 47680224 48830175 49010155
               48990011 48209967 47229918 46439889 45099885 44560205 

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Page last modified: May 22, 2016
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