MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0678
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0738 PM CDT SAT MAY 02 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX INTO NRN LA
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 228...
   
   VALID 030038Z - 030215Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 228 CONTINUES.
   
   LEAD BOW ECHO OVER SRN AR/NRN LA WAS MOVING 280/45 WITH STRONGEST
   PORTION BEGINNING A TURN TO THE ESE ALONG/S OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   ALONG THE AR/LA BORDER.  EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS THAT STRONGEST WIND
   POTENTIAL WILL ARRIVE AROUND CROSSETT AR/BASTROP LA 01-0130Z AND
   PERHAPS AS FAR S AS I-20 AROUND MONROE LA.  
   
   MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL BOW ECHO FORMATION APPEARS TO BE TAKING PLACE
   EAST OF DALLAS.  STRONGEST WIND POTENTIAL WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD
   OCCUR ALONG/S OF THE E-W ORIENTED OUTFLOW...NAMELY IN A CORRIDOR
   ABOUT 20-30 MILES NORTH OF I-20 THROUGH NERN TX.  
   
   BOTH BOWS WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN 50 KTS OF WLY MID-LVL FLOW. 
   STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE STORMS VIA THE SWLY LLJ OF 30-35
   KTS AMIDST 1.5+ INCH PWATS WILL LEAD TO CONSIDERABLE
   PRECIPITATION-LOADING.  AS A RESULT...DMGG WINDS AND WIND DRIVEN
   LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED.
   
   OTHERWISE...THOUGH SBCINH WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH
   MID-EVENING...INDIVIDUAL CELLS WILL BE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE BOWS AND
   PARTICULARLY INVOF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.  40-50 KTS OF BULK SHEAR
   WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS.  A
   TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE INDIVIDUAL
   CELLS AHEAD OF THE BOWS.  BUT...LLVL FLOW WAS SOMEWHAT WEAK AND
   SUGGESTS THAT THE DMGG WIND/HEAVY RAINFALL THREATS WILL BE HIGHER.
   
   ..RACY.. 05/03/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...FWD...
   
   LAT...LON   33009719 33549498 33989265 33629119 32429127 32249476
               32169719 33009719