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Mesoscale Discussion 678
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0678
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0145 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEW MEXICO INTO PARTS OF W TEXAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 240645Z - 240815Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
   REGION ANOTHER FEW HOURS...BUT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL STILL
   APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF SLOWLY DIMINISHING.

   DISCUSSION...SOME EASTWARD ACCELERATION OF THE SURFACE COLD POOL ON
   THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM HAS OCCURRED
   DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO...FROM LESS THAN 20 KT TO AROUND 25-30
   KTS.  THIS CORRESPONDS WITH RECENT NORTHWESTERLY GUST TO 28 KT AT
   TUCUMCARI WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LINE.

   AS THE GUST FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE INTO A PROGRESSIVELY MORE
   STABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...THERE IS LITTLE
   EVIDENT TO SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AS ACTIVITY
   APPROACHES DALHART AND AMARILLO THROUGH THE 08-10Z TIME FRAME.  AND
   ACTIVITY...IN GENERAL...IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH TIME.

   TO THIS POINT...STORMS ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE CONVECTIVE
   SYSTEM REMAIN CONFINED TO FORCING ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
   SACRAMENTO AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.  THE MORE DISCRETE STORM
   DEVELOPMENT NEAR/NORTH OF THE CARLSBAD AREA PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE
   TO POSE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...IN THE FORM OF SEVERE
   HAIL...DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  VERTICAL SHEAR...PRIMARILY
   DUE TO PRONOUNCED VEERING WITH HEIGHT...REMAINS STRONGEST ACROSS
   THIS REGION...WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALSO REMAIN MODESTLY
   STEEP.  WITH TIME THOUGH...COLD POOL CONSOLIDATION AND STRENGTHENING
   IS EXPECTED ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK...WITH AN EASTWARD ACCELERATION
   ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO...PARTICULARLY
   NORTH THROUGH EAST OF ROSWELL.  AS THIS OCCURS...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED
   BY SURFACE GUSTS APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS...ANY LINGERING SEVERE
   WEATHER POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY DIMINISHING.

   ..KERR/EDWARDS.. 05/24/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   32730491 33210477 33720444 34280389 34980319 35430302
               35990299 36270273 35100232 33760330 32280435 32730491 

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Page last modified: May 24, 2014
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