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Mesoscale Discussion 679
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0679
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0626 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEW MEXICO INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF W TEXAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 241126Z - 241300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...PERSISTENT STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
   SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO APPEARS TO FINALLY BE IN THE PROCESS OF
   DIMINISHING.

   DISCUSSION...VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS PERSISTED A BIT
   LONGER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED ACROSS EDDY INTO LEA COUNTIES OF
   SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO.  THIS AREA HAS REMAINED JUST TO THE SOUTH
   OF ANOTHER CONSOLIDATING AND EASTWARD SURGING COLD POOL /AT UP TO 35
   KT SOUTH OF CLOVIS...TOWARD THE PLAINVIEW AND LUBBOCK AREA/.  AND
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ON 30-35 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW
   ACROSS THE PECOS VALLEY APPEARS TO HAVE COUNTERED ANY STABILIZATION
   OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MAINTAINING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A
   CONTINUING SEVERE HAIL THREAT IN STRONGER CELLS.  HOWEVER...DIURNAL
   WEAKENING OF THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED VERTICAL
   SHEAR WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE
   CESSATION OF ANY LINGERING SEVERAL HAIL POTENTIAL.  RECENT TRENDS IN
   WDSS-II MESH DATA SUGGEST THAT THIS MAY ALREADY BE OCCURRING.

   ..KERR/EDWARDS.. 05/24/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   32240437 32730370 33000311 33180260 33050219 32380260
               31910326 31820360 32240437 

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Page last modified: May 24, 2014
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