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Mesoscale Discussion 679
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0679
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0545 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN KS AND EXTREME SWRN NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 222245Z - 230045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO INITIATE OVER
   NWRN KS THIS EVENING. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
   LARGE HAIL...BUT A BRIEF TORNADO WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IT REMAINS
   UNCERTAIN WHETHER COVERAGE AND DURATION OF ANY STORMS WILL BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR A WW...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES A BAND OF
   TOWERING CUMULUS FORMING ALONG A N-S ORIENTED CONVERGENCE ZONE IN
   NWRN KS. THIS ZONE OF CONVERGENCE IS MOVING WWD WHERE IT WILL
   EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE DRYLINE. THE ATMOSPHERE IN THIS CORRIDOR
   IS MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE AND
   ONLY MODEST CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REMAINING. THIS REGION REMAINS
   NORTH OF THE RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOUTH OF THE ZONE OF
   STRONGER FORCING ALOFT...WHICH MAY LIMIT FUTURE STORM COVERAGE AND
   DURATION...ESPECIALLY WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. CURRENT
   INDICATIONS ARE THAT ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS WWD-MOVING
   CONVERGENCE ZONE MERGES WITH THE DRYLINE AND AS LLJ STRENGTHENS.
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND HODOGRAPH SIZE WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING BUT
   MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN MODEST...SUGGESTING ANY SUPERCELLS
   SHOULD TREND TOWARD HP IN CHARACTER. DURATION OF SEVERE THREAT WILL
   PROBABLY REMAIN LIMITED TO A 2-3 HOUR WINDOW BEFORE SFC LAYER COOLS
   AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION INCREASES.

   ..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 05/22/2016


   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   40210062 39320064 38650085 38270149 38640200 40010187
               40290146 40210062 

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Page last modified: May 23, 2016
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