MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0679
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0804 PM CDT SAT MAY 02 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TX SOUTH PLAINS...NRN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND
   NCNTRL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 030104Z - 030230Z
   
   WATER VAPOR/PROFILER PLOT SHOWS A MODEST MID-LEVEL JET DIGGING SEWD
   INTO SERN NM WITH THE LEFT-EXIT REGION SUPPORTING A FEW TSTMS. 
   TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN INTENSITY ALONG NRN EDGE OF STEEPER SFC-H85
   LAPSE RATES.  00Z MAF SOUNDING SUGGESTS A CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...BUT
   GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF DRY AIR IN THE COLUMN...STORMS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED
   BY GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH HAIL ALONG THE HIGHER TX PLAINS THROUGH
   03Z.  
   
   AS THE STORMS CONTINUE ESE...NAM SUGGEST THAT THE STORMS WILL EXPAND
   IN AREAL COVERAGE /POSSIBLY BACKBUILD WWD OUT OF CURRENT ACTIVITY
   OVER NCNTRL TX/ ACROSS PORTION OF THE BIG COUNTRY /AROUND KABI/ AND
   AT POINTS EWD INTO NCNTRL TX AROUND DALLAS/FORT WORTH.  THIS SEEMS
   REASONABLE AS EVENING UPR AIR PLOTS SUGGEST NWRN EDGE OF MORE
   SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE/BUOYANCY REMAINS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY...ERN
   CONCHO RVR VLY NWD INTO NCNTRL TX.  ASIDE FROM GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL
   FARTHER W...STORMS LATER THIS EVENING WILL PRIMARILY BE ELEVATED. 
   BUT...PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AT LEAST 40-45 KTS OF BULK
   SHEAR WILL LIKELY YIELD A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL.  IN
   ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EVOLVE ONCE AGAIN OVER THE DALLAS
   FORT WORTH AREA LATER TONIGHT.
   
   ..RACY.. 05/03/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...LUB...MAF...
   
   LAT...LON   33570297 33169889 32919797 32159817 31769890 31829908
               32390287 32910299 33570297