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Mesoscale Discussion 680
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0680
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1226 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN
   NEW MEXICO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 241726Z - 242000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
   THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON...AND THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR
   POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...MIDDAY MESO-ANALYSIS DEPICTS A COUPLE OF SFC BOUNDARIES
   THAT SHOULD FOCUS DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AN OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY ARCS SWWD INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN AND EXTENDS INTO THE TX
   TRANS-PECOS...PARALLELING THE ERN SLOPES OF THE GUADALUPE/DAVIS
   MOUNTAINS. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OR PERHAPS EVEN
   RETREAT NWD THIS AFTERNOON AS RAIN-COOLED AIR TO ITS N MODIFIES IN
   THE WAKE OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION. TO THE S...A N/S ORIENTED
   CONFLUENCE AXIS EXTENDS FROM NEAR WINK TX TO THE BIG BEND. VIS
   IMAGERY INDICATES CU DEVELOPMENT ALREADY OCCURRING INVOF THE
   CONFLUENCE AXIS AND IMMEDIATELY TO ITS W AT THE ERN EDGE OF STEEPER
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHERE OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS ARE DEEPENING.

   SFC OBSERVATIONS AND THE 12Z DRT RAOB INDICATE RICH LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE E OF THE CONFLUENCE AXIS...CHARACTERIZED BY LOWEST-100-MB
   MEAN MIXING RATIOS AROUND 15.5-16.0 G/KG AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
   MIDDLE/UPPER 60S. MODIFICATIONS TO THE RAOB SUGGEST THAT LITTLE CINH
   REMAINS ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WITH STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES YIELDING AROUND 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. SVR
   STORMS COULD DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH
   ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION FORMING INTO THE EVENING AS MODEST
   MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER
   LOW.

   GIVEN 35-40-KT MID-LEVEL SWLYS SAMPLED BY THE MAF VWP...AND EXPECTED
   INTENSIFICATION OF MID-LEVEL FLOW...DEEP SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY
   STRONG FOR ORGANIZED AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION. THIS INCLUDES
   SUPERCELLS AND FORWARD-PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS...WITH LARGE
   HAIL -- POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT -- AND DMGG WIND GUSTS. DESPITE ONLY
   MODEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTH...RELATIVELY BACKED SFC WINDS NEAR
   AND S OF THE BOUNDARY AND E OF THE CONFLUENCE AXIS WILL SUPPORT
   SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SRH BENEATH THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR
   A TORNADO RISK. THIS IS MORE LIKELY TO BE THE CASE LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...ALONG ANY RETREATING OUTFLOW SEGMENTS
   ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN...AND AS LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ENLARGE.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 05/24/2014


   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   29590334 30360397 32270416 33090374 33270221 32460093
               31720065 30630107 29820167 29650218 29590334 

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Page last modified: May 24, 2014
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