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Mesoscale Discussion 680
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0680
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0625 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN TX AREA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 222325Z - 230130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED STORMS MAY AFFECT THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AREA OF
   SWRN TX THIS EVENING WITH SUPERCELLS POSING A THREAT FOR VERY LARGE
   HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHETHER
   COVERAGE AND DURATION OF STORMS WARRANT A WW...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING
   MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING A DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM JUST WEST OF
   SANDERSON NWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WRN TX. THE WARM SECTOR EAST
   OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES
   ABOVE A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONTRIBUTING TO 3000-4000 J/KG
   MLCAPE. HOWEVER...A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXISTS
   IN THIS REGION. A STORM DEVELOPING ALONG DRYLINE JUST EAST OF FORT
   STOCKTON APPEARS TO BE STRUGGLING. HOWEVER...A LARGE RIGHT-MOVING
   SUPERCELL JUST JUST EAST OF MIDLAND MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE SAN
   ANGELO CWA. A LEFT SPLIT IN EXTREME NRN MEXICO IS MOVING INTO THE
   BORDER COUNTY OF VAL VERDE. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE
   FOR SUPERCELLS WITH STRONG INSTABILITY AND 35-40 KT EFFECTIVE BULK
   SHEAR. HOWEVER...CONCERN IS THAT A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH
   INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION MIGHT LIMIT DURATION AND COVERAGE
   OF STORMS IN THIS REGION.

   ..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 05/22/2016


   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   32140008 31150008 29760085 29860176 29940220 31230184
               31950151 32140008 

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