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Mesoscale Discussion 681
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0681
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1258 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 241758Z - 242000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LOCALIZED SVR WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS
   AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...A BAND OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
   OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW CONTINUES ADVANCING EWD. MESOSCALE CONVERGENCE
   INVOF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/S INTERSECTION WITH A WNW/ESE-ORIENTED
   CONFLUENCE AXIS IS ENCOURAGING NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER ITS
   SRN FLANK...WITHIN AN UNCAPPED/MOIST ENVIRONMENT. RICH/DEEP MOISTURE
   SUPPORTING AROUND 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE WILL SUPPORT INTENSE
   UPDRAFT/DOWNDRAFTS. HOWEVER...THE AREA RESIDES WELL E OF SUBSTANTIAL
   TROPOSPHERIC FLOW YIELDING WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND LITTLE
   OPPORTUNITY FOR ORGANIZED/LARGER-SCALE COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT.
   REGARDLESS...THE PRESENCE OF PW AROUND 1.5 INCHES PER GPS DATA WILL
   ENHANCE WATER-LOADING PROCESSES AND PERHAPS SUPPORT LOCALIZED SVR
   WIND GUSTS IF CONVECTION REMAINS ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 05/24/2014


   ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   31630047 32100075 32640093 33020050 32359928 31689970
               31630047 

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Page last modified: May 24, 2014
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