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Mesoscale Discussion 681
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0681
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0143 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL MO...WRN AND CNTRL AR

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 182...184...

   VALID 170643Z - 170815Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 182...184...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND A TORNADO OR TWO IS
   EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. WW ISSUANCE MAY BE
   NEEDED TO THE EAST OF WW 184 AND 182 ACROSS SCNTRL MO AND WRN TO
   CNTRL AR.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW A WELL-DEVELOPED
   SQUALL-LINE FROM WRN MO SSWWD INTO SERN OK. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   AIR MASS IS ANALYZED AHEAD OF THE LINE ACCORDING TO THE RAP WITH
   MLCAPE IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...A 40 TO 55 KT
   LOW-LEVEL JET IS LOCATED ACROSS NWRN AR WHICH WAS SAMPLED WELL BY
   THE 06Z SPRINGFIELD SOUNDING. ENHANCED SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   LOW-LEVEL JET COUPLED WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS WILL HELP MAINTAIN
   THE SQUALL-LINE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. AS THE LINE MOVES EWD INTO
   SCNTRL MO AND NCNTRL AR...A WIND DAMAGE THREAT IS EXPECTED
   ESPECIALLY WITH PARTS OF THE LINE THAT HAVE A BOWING STRUCTURE. THE
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO
   THREAT WITH ROTATING ELEMENTS EMBEDDED IN THE MORE INTENSE PARTS OF
   THE SQUALL-LINE.

   ..BROYLES/WEISS.. 05/17/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...

   LAT...LON   37509377 36199411 35299451 34739430 34589382 34559280
               35429199 38059143 38739176 38759314 37509377 

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Page last modified: May 17, 2015
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