Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 682
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 682 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0682
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0121 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL/ERN NM

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 241821Z - 242015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SVR
   POTENTIAL...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...THE COMBINATION OF DIURNALLY ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC
   CIRCULATIONS...AND MID-LEVEL ASCENT PRECEDING A LOW APPROACHING THE
   FOUR-CORNERS REGION AND ATTENDANT IMPULSE PER WATER VAPOR
   IMAGERY...IS SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER PORTIONS OF
   CNTRL NM. VIS IMAGERY INDICATES ANVILS BEING SHED WELL DOWNSHEAR
   INTO SRN CO...SUGGESTING AMPLE HIGH-LEVEL FLOW ENCOURAGING
   CONVECTIVE VENTILATION. WITH THE 12Z ABQ RAOB INDICATING AN H7-H5
   LAPSE RATE AROUND 7.5 C/KM...DIURNAL SFC HEATING WILL SUPPORT
   500-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE -- HIGHEST OVER THE ERN NM PLAINS WHERE
   RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS -- E.G. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE
   40S TO THE LOWER 50S. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
   OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN CNTRL/NRN NM AND THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE
   PLAINS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
   MAGNITUDES OF 40-70 KT...ORGANIZED CONVECTION INCLUDING SUPERCELLS
   WITH SVR HAIL AND SVR WINDS IS EXPECTED. SOME TORNADO RISK CANNOT BE
   ENTIRELY RULED OUT OVER THE PLAINS OF ERN NM WHERE BACKED SFC WINDS
   EXIST AND SFC HEATING IS OCCURRING IN THE WAKE OF NOCTURNAL
   CONVECTION. HOWEVER...BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK IN THESE
   AREAS COMPARED TO LOCATIONS FARTHER SOUTH.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 05/24/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   35070702 36150776 36850700 36810494 35830340 33540308
               33200461 34220614 35070702 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 24, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities