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Mesoscale Discussion 683
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0683
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0225 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 183...

   VALID 170725Z - 170900Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 183
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
   HOURS ACROSS CNTRL TX. HOWEVER...ANY THREAT SHOULD BECOME MORE
   MARGINAL WITH TIME EARLY THIS MORNING. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED TO THE EAST OF WW 183.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW A BOWING LINE SEGMENT IN THE
   ERN PART OF WW 183. THIS CONVECTION IS LOCATED ON THE WRN EDGE OF A
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S
   F AND MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. THE
   MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD HELP FUEL THE LINE FOR A FEW MORE
   HOURS. IN ADDITION...THE SAN ANTONIO WSR-88D VWP SHOWS 30 TO 35 KT
   OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WITH STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FROM THE SFC TO 3 KM.
   THIS AMOUNT OF SHEAR COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
   COULD BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH BOWING
   STRUCTURES EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. HOWEVER...THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT
   SHOULD BECOME MORE MARGINAL WITH TIME AS INSTABILITY GRADUALLY
   DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.

   ..BROYLES/WEISS.. 05/17/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   29519972 29610039 29900064 30270032 30699962 31089930
               31519874 31169801 30309865 29519972 

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Page last modified: May 17, 2015
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