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Mesoscale Discussion 683
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0683
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0733 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL NEB TO EASTERN SD AND SOUTHWEST MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 230033Z - 230200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A NEW SEVERE-WEATHER WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED THIS
   EVENING FROM CENTRAL NEB INTO EASTERN SD AND PERHAPS SOUTHWEST
   MN...TO THE EAST OF WW 191 AND THE SD PORTION OF WW 192.  A TORNADO
   THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...WHILE A TRANSITION
   TO PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS
   THE DISCUSSION AREA.

   DISCUSSION...30-60-METER PER 12-HOUR 500-MB HEIGHT FALLS ARE
   EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY AND THE UPPER MIDWEST...AS A
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM WY THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TO
   EASTERN ND/SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY 12Z MON.  LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE
   WILL RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING S/SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET OF 50-65 KT
   EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL NEB INTO EASTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR WESTERN MN. 
   THIS LLJ WILL MAINTAIN A POLEWARD MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FEED WITH AN
   INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL NEB/SD TO EASTERN ND THIS
   EVENING.  ALTHOUGH A TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE YET THIS
   EVENING AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS...MODELS SUGGEST AN EVENTUAL UPSCALE
   GROWTH FOR A LINEAR MCS WILL OCCUR AS STORMS MOVE INTO THE
   DISCUSSION AREA...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT LATER
   THIS EVENING.

   ..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 05/23/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...

   LAT...LON   42579968 43829937 45749809 45799701 45579650 44829588
               44119584 42819698 41689800 41139862 41159900 41599944
               42579968 

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Page last modified: May 23, 2016
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