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Mesoscale Discussion 683
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0683
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0258 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SWRN OK INTO NRN TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 241958Z - 242200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...DISORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY YIELD AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND
   GUST THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE IS NOT NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA IN
   RESPONSE TO /1/ ASCENT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD POOL THAT
   EXTENDS RADIALLY OUTWARD FROM 1016-MB MESOHIGH ANALYZED OVER THE ERN
   TX PANHANDLE...AND /2/ ASCENT WITHIN THE WEAK WAA PATTERN PRECEDING
   THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MARKED BY A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PATTERN PER
   AREA VWP DATA. DESPITE POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...DIURNAL SFC
   HEATING IN THE PRESENCE OF RICH/DEEP MOISTURE -- E.G. SFC DEWPOINTS
   IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S -- IS SUPPORTING SBCAPE AROUND 2000-3000
   J/KG PER MODIFICATIONS TO THE 12Z OUN/FWD RAOBS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
   A FEW INTENSE UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS...AND AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUST
   CANNOT BE RULED OUT OWING TO WATER LOADING ENCOURAGED BY PW VALUES
   AROUND 1.3-1.5 INCHES PER GPS DATA. THIS POTENTIAL -- ALBEIT 
   LIMITED -- WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER THE TX BIG COUNTRY WHERE VERTICAL
   CIRCULATIONS ACCOMPANYING AN ESTABLISHED STRONGER COLD POOL WILL
   FOCUS STRONG SFC WINDS. HOWEVER...ACROSS THE ENTIRE
   AREA...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO OUTRUN STRONGER MID-LEVEL
   FLOW/DEEP SHEAR YIELDING LIMITED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO SUPPRESS
   THE SVR RISK.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 05/24/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

   LAT...LON   32040017 34279937 35819900 36319819 36279743 35809728
               34909749 32019867 31599954 32040017 

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Page last modified: May 24, 2014
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