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Mesoscale Discussion 684
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0684
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0427 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL AR...SCNTRL TO SE MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 184...

   VALID 170927Z - 171100Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 184
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IN WW 184 SHOULD BECOME MORE
   MARGINAL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE AS THE LINE OF STORMS MOVES INTO THE ERN AND SRN PART OF
   THE WATCH. THE WATCH MAY BE CANCELED IF THE DOWNWARD TREND IN RADAR
   CONTINUES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MISSOURI PORTION.

   DISCUSSION...A NEARLY CONTINUOUS LINE OF STORMS IS ONGOING FROM
   ECNTRL MO SWD INTO NW AR. WEAK INSTABILITY IS ANALYZED AHEAD OF THE
   LINE ACROSS SE MO AND NCNTRL AR. LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS QUITE STRONG WITH
   850 MB WINDS ESTIMATED AROUND 50 KT BY REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS. THIS
   MAY BE ENOUGH FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE INTENSE
   ELEMENTS WITHIN THE LINE. HOWEVER...THE WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
   THE LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS...RESULTING IN A DOWNWARD TREND WITH THE SEVERE THREAT
   BECOMING MORE MARGINAL WITH TIME ESPECIALLY IN SE MO WHERE
   INSTABILITY IS WEAKEST.

   ..BROYLES/WEISS.. 05/17/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

   LAT...LON   37989192 36519222 35569355 34849266 35319141 36519050
               38129059 37989192 

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Page last modified: May 17, 2015
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