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Mesoscale Discussion 684
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0684
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0344 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SWRN TX AND FAR SERN NM

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 181...

   VALID 242044Z - 242215Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 181 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING TORNADOES
   CONTINUES ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 181.

   DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARCING
   WSWWD FROM THE TX BIG COUNTRY TO THE TX TRANS-PECOS AND EXTENDING
   NWD INTO S-CNTRL NM. DESPITE THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUING TO SAG
   SWD...COOLER AIR IN ITS WAKE IS STILL RELATIVELY MOIST -- E.G.
   DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. FURTHERMORE...SFC PRESSURE
   FALLS OF 1.5-2.5 MB PER 2 HOURS IN ITS WAKE SUGGESTS THAT THE AIR
   MASS IS MODIFYING WHILE ALSO SUPPORTING A TENDENCY FOR ANTECEDENT
   NLY WINDS TO VEER TO ENELY/ELY. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH AT LEAST
   MARGINAL-MODERATE BOUNDARY-LAYER BUOYANCY EXTENDING N OF THE
   BOUNDARY...PROVIDED THE OVERLYING EML PLUME.

   IN THE SHORT TERM...THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF STRONGEST
   CONVECTION WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INVOF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND IN ITS
   WAKE ACROSS PARTS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND ERN TX TRANS-PECOS NEWD
   TO THE SRN FLANK OF A MULTICELL CLUSTER CROSSING THE TX BIG COUNTRY.
   THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE
   POST-OUTFLOW-BOUNDARY COOL DOME. MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY FORM
   FARTHER S ALONG A CONFLUENCE AXIS AND INVOF TERRAIN-ENHANCED ASCENT.
   LARGE HAIL -- INCLUDING SIGNIFICANT HAIL -- AND DMGG WINDS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY WITH SUSTAINED SUPERCELL STORMS/SUSTAINED
   CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. MARKED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SAMPLED BELOW 2 KM AGL
   PER THE MAF VWP AND ASSOCIATED ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SRH MAY BOLSTER
   THE TORNADO POTENTIAL BEHIND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY OWING
   TO THE RECENT ACCELERATION OF COOL DOME MODIFICATION.

   ..COHEN.. 05/24/2014


   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   29730302 32940474 32930146 29749987 29730302 

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Page last modified: May 24, 2014
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