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Mesoscale Discussion 684
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0684
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0746 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX THROUGH SWRN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 230046Z - 230215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS OVER NWRN TX TO EVOLVE INTO A
   FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS WITH PRIMARY THREAT TRANSITIONING TO
   DAMAGING WIND. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS MODEST AT
   BEST...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS STORM MERGERS HAVE OCCURRED OVER NRN TX TO THE
   NW OF THE CHILDRESS AREA...AND STORMS ARE CONGEALING INTO A SMALL
   CLUSTER. THE DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE UNSTABLE /2000-2500
   J/KG MLCAPE/ WITH MODEST CONVECTIVE INHIBITION THAT WILL CONTINUE TO
   INCREASE AS THE BOUNDARY COOLS. HOWEVER...A STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ
   INTERACTING WITH CONSOLIDATING COLD POOLS MIGHT EVENTUALLY FOSTER A
   FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS THAT WOULD MOVE EWD THROUGH NWRN TX AND SWRN
   OK POSING A RISK FOR STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE SIGNS OF FORWARD PROPAGATION
   AND LINEAR ORGANIZATION.

   ..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 05/23/2016


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...

   LAT...LON   33479965 34279988 35169961 34749841 33599835 33479965 

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Page last modified: May 23, 2016
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