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Mesoscale Discussion 685
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0685
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0624 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 182...

   VALID 242324Z - 250030Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 182
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...GREATEST RELATIVE SVR THREAT WITHIN WW 182 INTO THIS
   EVENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS E-CNTRL NM. LARGE HAIL AND
   ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS.

   DISCUSSION...AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE INTO PORTIONS OF
   E-CNTRL NM...WITH MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AS
   TEMPERATURES HAVE HEATED INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S F...WHILE SLIGHTLY
   COOLER AND LESS UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS NERN NM. A
   BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS HAS MOVED OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
   CNTRL NM INTO THE ERN PLAINS...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH IS MOVING INTO
   CHAVES COUNTY NM. THIS STORM...ALONG WITH OTHERS IN THE MORE
   IMMEDIATE VICINITY TO THE N...WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO STRENGTHEN
   AOA SVR LIMITS WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS AS IT ENCOUNTERS RICHER
   BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...AND A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
   CHARACTERIZED BY A 2 KM AGL DEEP LAYER OF SELY WINDS. 

   POTENTIAL ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NRN HALF OF THE WATCH APPEARS TO BE
   COMPARATIVELY LESS AS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS SURGING
   EWD...WITH STABILIZING EFFECTS IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION REDUCING
   SVR POTENTIAL FROM W-E.

   ..ROGERS.. 05/24/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   32950316 33000430 33030503 33620546 33970569 35580550
               36830501 36930434 36950345 36780310 32950316 

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Page last modified: May 25, 2014
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