MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0686
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1000 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL AND NERN KS / FAR WRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 190300Z - 190330Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...SWATHS OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE
   SEEMINGLY LIKELY CONCURRENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE QLCS FROM THE
   WEST.  A SEVERE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE COORDINATED FOR ERN KS AND FAR
   WRN MO OVER THE NEXT 30-60 MINUTES.
   
   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
   QLCS WITH SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE BOWING STRUCTURES IN ADDITION TO AN
   EMBEDDED SUPERCELL OVER OTTAWA COUNTY.  DESPITE APPRECIABLE CINH DUE
   TO A GRADUALLY COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN
   THE H7-H5 LAYER /AOA 9 DEG C PER KM/ SHOULD ACT TO SUSTAIN THIS QLCS
   INTO ERN KS AND OUT OF TORNADO WATCH 170 AND 174 BY THE 04-05Z
   PERIOD.  LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS THIS QLCS WILL BE AFFECTING
   TOPEKA AROUND 0500Z-0530Z AND THE GREATER KANSAS CITY METRO DURING
   THE 06-07Z PERIOD.  IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR ISOLD DMGG
   WINDS...A NON-ZERO TORNADO THREAT WOULD SEEMINGLY EXIST WITH ANY
   LONGER-LIVED EMBEDDED SUPERCELL MESOCYCLONE OR APPRECIABLY MORE
   INTENSE QLCS-GENERATED MESOVORTEX.
   
   ..SMITH/CORFIDI.. 05/19/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...
   
   LAT...LON   38289641 39859622 40079489 39599442 38999429 38469436
               38049480 37789602 38289641