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Mesoscale Discussion 687
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0687
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0926 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 191...

   VALID 230226Z - 230400Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 191 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A NEW SEVERE-WEATHER WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR THE
   NEBRASKA COUNTIES THAT CURRENTLY RESIDE WITHIN WW 191...AS THE
   THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST BEYOND THE
   CURRENT EXPIRATION TIME OF 03Z.  THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE SD
   COUNTIES WITHIN WW 191 HAS BEEN STABILIZED...SUGGESTING THE SEVERE
   WEATHER THREAT WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW THROUGH TONIGHT.

   DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED CONTINUED
   CLOUD-TOP COOLING ATTENDANT TO THE ONGOING BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
   STORMS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST LYMAN AND GREGORY COUNTIES SD TO
   SOUTHERN CHERRY COUNTY NEB.  NEW STORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP
   ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THIS STORM ACTIVITY IN CHERRY COUNTY
   AS FORCING FOR DEEP-LAYER ASCENT INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
   SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A WY SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AS AN ATTENDANT COLD
   FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEB.  A 50-KT SOUTHERLY LLJ PER VWP DATA AT
   LBF/HSI IS MAINTAINING A FEED OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OF
   2000-3000 J PER KG/ INTO THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH FLANKS OF THIS TSTM
   COMPLEX.  THIS LLJ SHOULD REMAIN SLY THROUGH 06Z AND THEN VEER TO
   SOUTHWESTERLY...SUCH THAT NEW STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
   POSE A THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

   ..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 05/23/2016


   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...BOU...

   LAT...LON   40700078 41070244 42530240 42920215 43010029 43499954
               42689958 41829962 41239932 40799957 40700078 

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Page last modified: May 23, 2016
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