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Mesoscale Discussion 687
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0687
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0920 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM...W AND W-CNTRL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 250220Z - 250315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY WITHIN A BAND
   OF ASCENT MOVING OUT OF CNTRL NM. ADDITIONALLY...ONGOING STRONG-SVR
   TSTMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS FROM NEAR THE TX BIG BEND INTO
   W-CNTRL TX. AS SUCH...A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND
   GUSTS APPEARS LIKELY TO PERSIST BEYOND 03Z...AND MAY REQUIRE
   ISSUANCE OF ONE OR TWO NEW SVR TSTM WATCHES.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST WATER VAPOR AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW
   COOLING CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT LOBE EMANATING OUT OF
   CNTRL NM. THIS ACTIVITY IS APPROACHING A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
   OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN NM AND W TX. DESPITE RELATIVELY COOLER
   CONDITIONS AND THE PRESENCE OF AT LEAST WEAK CINH /PER 00Z MAF
   SOUNDING/...TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
   IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
   ASCENT...AS WELL AS A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE AREA.
   THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS DMGG
   WIND GUSTS IF STORMS CAN REMAIN ROOTED NEAR THE SFC.

   FARTHER S/E...INTO THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND INTO THE NRN
   EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX...TSTMS ARE PERSISTING AND REDEVELOPING SWWD
   NEAR/N OF THE BIG BEND AREA. MOISTURE IS COMPARATIVELY RICHER IN
   THIS AREA...AND A STRENGTHENING LLJ ATOP A PREEXISTING CONVECTIVE
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN TSTM INTENSITY IN THE
   PRESENCE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG
   WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. 

   THESE TWO AREAS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR ONE OR POSSIBLY TWO NEW SVR
   TSTM WATCHES BY 03Z.

   ..ROGERS/MEAD.. 05/25/2014


   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   33750477 34500414 34630287 34620166 32700129 32070130
               32050026 32299948 32129919 31459913 29929950 29779958
               29449992 29570096 29780158 29830217 29820241 29470318
               29660380 32430472 33750477 

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Page last modified: May 25, 2014
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