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Mesoscale Discussion 687
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0687
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0220 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...WI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 171920Z - 172115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
   ACROSS THE REGION. SOME ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
   BUT THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE TREAT IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE
   NEED FOR A WW.

   DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A GENERAL INCREASE IN
   CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF WI. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY LACKS
   LIGHTNING WITH THE WARM LAYER ALOFT AND WEAK LAPSE RATES SAMPLED BY
   THE 18Z DVN SOUNDING LIKELY LIMITING INSTABILITY AND KEEPING EL
   TEMPS TOO WARM. OVERALL KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF A
   SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH 18Z DVN SOUNDING REPORTING OVER 40 KT OF
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND 0-1 KM SRH OVER 100 M2/S2. RECENT VAD DATA
   FROM ARX AND GRB ALSO REPORT SIMILAR SRH VALUES. HOWEVER...DESPITE
   DECENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S/...INSTABILITY
   IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK AS A RESULT OF PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED POOR
   LAPSE RATES. SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
   1000 J PER KG. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELDS SOME SEVERE IS
   POSSIBLE BUT THE LACK OF THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY
   SEVERE THREAT ISOLATED. TRENDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE MONITORED
   BUT A WW IS CURRENTLY CONSIDERED UNLIKELY.

   ..MOSIER/THOMPSON.. 05/17/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...

   LAT...LON   46029213 46259144 46228919 45528836 43958795 43058843
               42969084 43739156 44129179 45069260 46029213 

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Page last modified: May 17, 2015
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