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Mesoscale Discussion 688
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0688
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0107 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN OK AND NORTH TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 181807Z - 181900Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DMGG WIND
   GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SRN OK. TSTM
   COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS TSTM INITIATION
   ALONG A WEAK WIND SHIFT DRIFTING SWD INTO SRN OK. A MOISTURE-RICH
   AND WARM BOUNDARY LAYER IS YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2000
   J/KG... DESPITE A SOMEWHAT MARGINAL MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE PROFILE
   /SAMPLED AT 6-6.5 C/KM IN 12Z OUN SOUNDING/. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT
   MIDLEVEL FLOW IS PRESENT TO YIELD EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30
   KT...BUT WEAK FLOW IN THE LOWEST 3 KM AGL LENDS SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW
   LONG-LIVED/ORGANIZED ANY ACCOMPANYING SVR THREAT MAY BE. ADDITIONAL
   LIMITING FACTORS INCLUDE LARGE-SCALE MIDLEVEL HEIGHT RISES THAT ARE
   OCCURRING...ALONG WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WHICH MAY LIMIT
   THE LONGEVITY AND WIDESPREAD GENERATION OF NEW CONVECTION THIS
   AFTERNOON. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED STRONG
   TO SVR WIND GUSTS...AND A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

   ..ROGERS/MOSIER/THOMPSON.. 05/18/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34529789 34939683 35199644 35039603 34379610 34189618
               33919653 33339836 33989897 34529789 

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Page last modified: May 18, 2015
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