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Mesoscale Discussion 690
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0690
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0113 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL NEB AND SE SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 195...197...

   VALID 230613Z - 230745Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   195...197...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ERN
   PART OF WW 197 AND WW 195 OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. WIND DAMAGE AND
   HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE SHOULD
   BECOME MORE MARGINAL TOWARD 08Z AND ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
   EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW A SOLID LINE OF STRONG
   THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED FROM WEST OF SIOUX FALLS SSWWD TO JUST
   NORTHEAST OF MCCOOK NEB. THIS LINE IS LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF AN
   AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED IN THE 1000
   TO 1800 J/KG RANGE. THE LINE IS BEING SUPPORTED BY LIFT ON THE WRN
   EDGE OF A 50 TO 65 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. THE INSTABILITY AND STRONG
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE
   LINE FOR A SEVERAL MORE HOURS. HOWEVER...THE LINE SHOULD GRADUALLY
   BECOME ELEVATED AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DECOUPLE. FOR
   THIS REASON...THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BECOME MARGINAL.
   HAIL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CORES BUT SHOULD ALSO
   BECOME MARGINAL AS INSTABILITY DECREASES.

   ..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 05/23/2016


   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...

   LAT...LON   44029788 43359875 42259961 41220024 40050024 40009919
               40359859 42019770 43429640 43969658 44149732 44029788 

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Page last modified: May 23, 2016
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