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Mesoscale Discussion 690
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0690
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0258 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR S-CNTRL OK...N/CNTRL TX...

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 181958Z - 182200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH AT
   LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SPARSE
   COVERAGE AND LACK OF STORM ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE
   NEED FOR WW.

   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT -- WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
   SOME SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS -- APPEARS POSSIBLE FROM FAR
   S-CNTRL OK SWD THROUGH WRN N TX AND INTO WRN CNTRL TX. THIS AREA IS
   FAVORABLY SITUATED TO THE W OF MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS E TX /THE
   RESULT OF AN OVERNIGHT MCS/ AND TO THE S OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING
   CURRENTLY ACROSS MUCH OF WRN OK AND TX PANHANDLE. LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS
   ACROSS THE REGION IS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
   80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S...WHICH WILL HELP SUPPORT AT LEAST
   MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OVER 2000 J PER KG/ DESPITE RELATIVELY
   POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK AND THE REGION IS
   ON THE ERN FRINGE OF THE BETTER BULK SHEAR BUT THERE IS STILL LIKELY
   ENOUGH KINEMATIC SUPPORT FOR WEAKLY ORGANIZED MULIT-CELLS AND
   PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL. OVERALL...A MOSTLY PULSE STORM-MODE
   IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE HAIL AND
   WATER-LOADED DOWNDRAFTS. GIVEN ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
   COVERAGE AND MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT...A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY
   ANTICIPATED.

   ..MOSIER/THOMPSON.. 05/18/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   31559703 30129751 29989832 30489883 31979913 33179892
               33919917 34469962 34749955 34879862 34849766 34589675
               34169656 33569642 32409690 31559703 

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Page last modified: May 18, 2015
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