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Mesoscale Discussion 691
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0691
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1015 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE CONCHO VALLEY OF TEXAS AND VICINITY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 251515Z - 251645Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A LOCALIZED SVR-WIND RISK WILL EXIST THROUGH LATE MORNING.
   WHILE THE SVR RISK IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...A WW IS
   NOT NEEDED THROUGH LATE MORNING.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER INVOF THE GLASS
   MOUNTAINS CONTINUES ADVANCING EWD TO THE N OF A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY ANALYZED FROM BETWEEN SAN ANGELO AND JUNCTION WWD TO FORT
   STOCKTON. SJT BASE REFLECTIVITY DATA INDICATE THAT THIS ACTIVITY HAS
   CONSOLIDATED INTO SEMI-ORGANIZED...OCCASIONALLY BOWING QUASI-LINEAR
   SEGMENTS. MOIST INFLOW...ENHANCED BY 10-15-KT ELYS AOB 1 KM AGL PER
   THE SJT VWP...WILL SUPPORT FORWARD PROPAGATION OF THIS CONVECTION
   ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING. MODERATE DEEP SHEAR OFFERED
   BY 35-40 KT OF 5-6-KM-AGL SWLYS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED
   CONVECTION WITH A LOCALIZED SVR-WIND POTENTIAL -- AIDED BY WATER
   LOADING ASSOCIATED WITH 1.5-INCH PW PER GPS DATA. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL
   BOUNDARY-LAYER STATIC STABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF ANY
   SUCH POTENTIAL IN THE SHORT TERM...LIKELY PRECLUDING WW ISSUANCE
   THROUGH THIS MORNING.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 05/25/2014


   ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   30560155 31200164 31580091 31570006 31259983 30690063
               30560155 

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Page last modified: May 25, 2014
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