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Mesoscale Discussion 691
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0691
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0136 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OK...NORTH TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 196...

   VALID 230636Z - 230800Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 196
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK IN THE
   RED RIVER VALLEY. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
   THREATS AS A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES EWD ACROSS SRN OK AND
   NRN TX.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY MOIST AIRMASS
   ACROSS MUCH OF TX EXTENDING NWD INTO SW OK WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE
   IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE
   INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES ESTIMATED IN THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG
   RANGE ACROSS THE SWRN HALF OF WW 196. THE CLUSTER OF STRONG TO
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING NEAR THE RED RIVER IS LOCATED ALONG THE
   NRN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND ON THE ERN EDGE OF STRONG
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THESE TWO FACTORS WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL THE MCS FOR
   SEVERAL MORE HOURS AND THE STORMS MAY TURN A BIT MORE ESEWD FAVORING
   THE STRONGER INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST WSR-88D VWP AT
   FORT WORTH SHOWS VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT FROM THE SFC TO 4 KM AGL
   WHICH IS CREATING MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
   ESTIMATED NEAR 50 KT. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED
   SEVERE THREAT WITH THE MCS THROUGH DAYBREAK. HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

   ..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 05/23/2016


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   33409796 33029708 33219662 33829643 34529720 34859878
               34739925 34509939 33879946 33559875 33409796 

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Page last modified: May 23, 2016
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