Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 692
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 692 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0692
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1046 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF MIDDLE/ERN TN...WRN NC...SRN/WRN
   SC...NRN/ERN GA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 251546Z - 251815Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
   INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO
   BE MONITORED THROUGH THE DAY...THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS CURRENTLY
   UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...VIS SATELLITE AND MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE
   CONVECTION DEEPENING WITHIN A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE ANALYZED
   FROM MIDDLE TN TO THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN OF CNTRL SC AND OFF
   THE COAST. LIGHTING DATA SUGGEST INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
   OVER PARTS OF MIDDLE/ERN TN. THE AIR MASS S OF THE BOUNDARY
   CONTINUES TO DIURNALLY DESTABILIZE -- E.G. MLCAPE CURRENTLY AROUND
   500-1500 J/KG PER MODIFIED 12Z BNA/FFC/CHS RAOBS. THUNDERSTORMS
   SHOULD INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY AS ADDITIONAL SFC HEATING
   CONTRIBUTES TO STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH ONLY
   MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. TERRAIN-DRIVEN CIRCULATIONS
   OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND STRENGTHENING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
   WILL ALSO ENCOURAGE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DAY.

   ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL BE
   POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OWING TO MODERATE BUOYANCY AND
   SUFFICIENT HIGH-LEVEL VENTILATION. A FEW PERSISTENT MULTICELL
   CLUSTERS MAY EVOLVE PROVIDED 25-30 KT OF MID-LEVEL NWLY/S AIDING
   FORWARD PROPAGATION OF CONVECTION TOWARD THE COAST. HOWEVER...GIVEN
   THE INFLUENCE OF AN ONLY WEAK UPSTREAM PERTURBATION APPROACHING FROM
   THE MID-MS VALLEY PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND THE LACK OF EVEN
   STRONGER BUOYANCY...ANY SVR RISK IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN
   ISOLATED.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 05/25/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...HUN...

   LAT...LON   31658139 32788279 34418493 35918679 35798457 34688201
               33677996 32957948 31658139 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 25, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities