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Mesoscale Discussion 692
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0692
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0458 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN OK AND N TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 198...

   VALID 230958Z - 231100Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 198
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...AN ONGOING MATURE MCS ALONG THE RED RIVER AND VICINITY IS
   FORECAST TO BE DECAYING DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...WITH THE SVR
   RISK LESSENING. ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE WILL NOT BE REQUIRED.

   DISCUSSION...THE FORWARD-PROPAGATING PORTION OF AN MCS ACROSS SRN
   OK/N TX IS SPREADING EWD/ESEWD ACROSS ATOKA AND BRYAN COUNTIES OK
   AND GRAYSON COUNTY TX. OK MESONET OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT RECENT
   PEAK WIND GUSTS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APEX OF THE LEADING
   CONVECTIVE LINE ARE ONLY AROUND 40-50 MPH. AS INFLOW CONTINUES TO
   STABILIZE OWING TO NOCTURNAL COOLING...AND AS THE MCS INTERCEPTS THE
   WRN FRINGES OF A CONTINENTAL AIR MASS...THE MCS WILL BE WEAKENING
   DURING THE SUBSEQUENT PRE-DAWN HOURS. ACCORDINGLY...THE SVR-WIND
   RISK WILL LESSEN AS CONVECTION MOVES ACROSS PARTS OF SERN OK AND
   ADJACENT N TX...THOUGH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
   CONVECTION EVOLVING WITHIN THE UPSHEAR-PROPAGATION REGIME WWD TOWARD
   WICHITA FALLS AND VICINITY WILL POSE LITTLE SVR RISK AS SWD-SAGGING
   OUTFLOW UNDERCUTS INCIPIENT CONVECTIVE CELLS.

   ..COHEN.. 05/23/2016


   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   33779944 34209843 34239778 34099701 34479624 34589531
               33969487 33649518 33309634 33349851 33509931 33779944 

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