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Mesoscale Discussion 692
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0692
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0800 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 190100Z - 190300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
   NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF CNTRL TX THIS EVENING ALONG A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
   EARLIER CONVECTION. SFC TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
   80S...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...AND STEEP MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 DEG C/KM ARE CONTRIBUTING MLCAPE OF 2000-3000
   J/KG ACROSS THE MCD AREA. WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-40 KT PRESENT
   OVER MUCH OF CNTRL TX...THESE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING ISOLATED INSTANCES OF SEVERE HAIL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS. AS A LOW-LEVEL JET MODESTLY INCREASES ACROSS W TX THIS
   EVENING...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
   HOWEVER...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS MAY TEND TO LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF
   ANY INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFT...WHICH SHOULD LESSEN THE LARGE HAIL THREAT.
   AS SUCH...WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

   ..GLEASON/HART.. 05/19/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   30249846 30160010 30220141 30920159 31250064 31499830
               31439692 30479701 30349764 30249846 

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Page last modified: May 19, 2015
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