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Mesoscale Discussion 693
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0693
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1248 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL FL PENINSULA NWD INTO N FL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 251748Z - 251945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLD TO SCTD STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP.  A FEW
   SMALL-SCALE STRONG WET MICROBURSTS ARE POSSIBLE.  LOCALIZED POCKETS
   OF WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER DOWNBURSTS.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CU
   FIELD OVER THE FL PENINSULA CONFINED BY THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
   ALONG THE WEST AND EAST COASTS.  ELY 0-3 KM FLOW SHOULD AID IN
   MOVING THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FARTHER INLAND DURING THE
   AFTERNOON.  A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH DENOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY S
   OF THE WRN FL PANHANDLE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE SEWD TOWARDS
   THE WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON.  IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW MUCH INFLUENCE
   THIS FEATURE MAY HAVE ON THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...BUT STRONG SURFACE
   HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN
   ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID
   AFTERNOON HOURS.  PREFERRED AREAS FOR ISOLD-SCTD THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT APPEAR GREATEST INVOF THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE AND THE
   INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST.  A
   FAIRLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SAMPLED BY THE 12Z TBW RAOB /IN EXCESS
   OF 15 J PER KG LOWEST 100MB MEAN MIXING RATIO/ AND STEEP LOW LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD PRECIP LOADING AND A WET MICROBURST CAPABLE OF
   A POCKET OF WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGER CORES.  IF ROBUST UPDRAFTS
   CAN DEVELOP...A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THREAT MAY ALSO OCCUR --DUE
   TO -10 TO -12 DEG C AT H5 TEMPS-- ON A LOCALIZED BASIS.

   ..SMITH/CORFIDI.. 05/25/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   26728170 28158174 29218144 30498183 29858322 29178264
               28538256 27728266 27168245 26728170 

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Page last modified: May 25, 2014
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