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Mesoscale Discussion 693
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0693
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0132 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WEST TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 231832Z - 232030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER
   THE MOUNTAINS OF THE TRANS-PECOS AND EVENTUALLY NORTH-NORTHEAST
   ALONG THE DRYLINE. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...BUT
   A COUPLE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED SEVERE WINDS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE AS WELL.

   DISCUSSION...INITIAL HIGH-BASED CB DEVELOPMENT HAS COMMENCED OVER
   JEFF DAVIS COUNTY WITH DOWNSTREAM BOUNDARY-LAYER CU ALSO EVIDENT
   INTO PECOS COUNTY. THIS SHOULD BE THE CORRIDOR FOR STORM INITIATION
   THROUGH 20Z. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH HOW FAR NORTH STORMS WILL
   DEVELOP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OWING TO MINIMAL DRYLINE CU AT THIS
   TIME. NEVERTHELESS...WEAKENING INHIBITION AND STRENGTHENING
   CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOULD FOSTER AT LEAST A COUPLE STORMS
   NORTH OF THE HIGH TERRAIN. AIR MASS IS QUITE UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF
   3000-4000 J/KG AMID VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A FEW
   SUPERCELLS SHOULD FORM WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN HAZARD.
   MODEST LOW-LEVEL INFLOW MAY INITIALLY TEMPER THE TORNADO RISK...BUT
   GIVEN THE DEGREE OF BUOYANCY AND SOME STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LEVEL
   WINDS TOWARDS EVENING...AN INCREASE IN TORNADO/WIND POTENTIAL IS
   ANTICIPATED.

   ..GRAMS/HART.. 05/23/2016


   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   32940199 33570201 33800138 33540070 33020045 32180045
               30920105 29910178 29710252 30040298 30830274 31630206
               32510201 32940199 

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Page last modified: May 23, 2016
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