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Mesoscale Discussion 693
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0693
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0901 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF W TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 188...

   VALID 190201Z - 190330Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 188
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...LOCAL SEVERE RISK CONTINUES WITH STRONGER CELLS IN/NEAR
   THE WW.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS THAT THE EARLIER/WELL-ORGANIZED
   SUPERCELL OVER ERN REEVES/NRN PECOS COUNTY HAS WEAKENED.  THIS HAS
   LIKELY OCCURRED IN RESPONSE TO A COMBINATION OF THE ONSET OF MODEST
   DIURNAL COOLING...AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THUS
   DISRUPTING ISOLATED/CELLULAR STORM MODE.  THE TREND TOWARD MORE
   WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM...AS
   A SELY LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
   HOURS YIELDING A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN WARM ADVECTION-INDUCED
   ASCENT.

   WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT AS CHARACTERIZED BY CAPE/SHEAR REMAINS
   SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
   HAIL...OVERALL SEVERE RISK -- PARTICULARLY ON THE HIGH END -- HAS
   DIMINISHED.  WHILE WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR STORM
   COVERAGE/INTENSITY TRENDS OVER THE NEXT HOUR...PRIND THAT A NEW WW
   WILL NOT BE REQUIRED BEYOND THE SCHEDULED 19/03Z EXPIRATION OF WW
   188.

   ..GOSS.. 05/19/2015


   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   29950336 30290373 30730401 31060411 31890408 33780380
               34260300 32270221 31340054 29750176 29590261 29950336 

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Page last modified: May 19, 2015
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