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Mesoscale Discussion 694
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0694
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1250 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS REGION OF TEXAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 251750Z - 251915Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE
   EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT THIS
   WOULD WARRANT WW ISSUANCE...THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS IS
   EXPECTED TO EVOLVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...AS THE LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ON THE
   BACKSIDE OF A PERSISTENT CNTRL-TX CONVECTIVE CLUSTER BEGAN TO ASCEND
   THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN TX...VIS SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY HAVE
   INDICATED STRENGTHENING CONVECTION OVER THE GLASS MOUNTAINS.
   DIURNALLY ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS
   BOUNDARY HAVE ALSO SUPPORTED MORE ISOLATED CU DEVELOPMENT SWD TOWARD
   THE STOCKTON PLATEAU AND E OF A DRYLINE. AS THE LEADING EDGE OF DCVA
   EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SRN SEMICIRCLE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE
   CENTERED TO THE NW APPROACHES THE AREA...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
   CONVECTION MAY BLOSSOM FROM THE CU DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

   MLCAPE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS AROUND 1000
   J/KG...AND COULD COMBINE WITH 35-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR TO
   SUPPORT ONE OR TWO SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED STORMS WITH SVR HAIL POSSIBLE
   IN THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY ONLY IN THE
   70S BEHIND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...IT MAY TAKE AT LEAST A FEW MORE
   HOURS OF MODIFICATION OF THE POST-BOUNDARY COOL DOME BEFORE MORE
   SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION AND A GREATER SVR RISK WOULD EVOLVE IN
   THIS AREA.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 05/25/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MAF...

   LAT...LON   28930319 30230325 31140378 31500368 31440291 30610223
               29800200 28930319 

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Page last modified: May 25, 2014
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