MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0694
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0525 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NERN OK...SERN KS AND FAR WEST
   CENTRAL-SWRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 191025Z - 191230Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...ISOLATED HAIL AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND/OR A LOCALLY
   STRONG WIND GUST WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM PART OF NERN OK INTO SERN KS
   THROUGH 12-13Z. LIMITED SPATIOTEMPORAL THREAT AREA WITH THE NERN
   OK/SERN KS TSTM CLUSTER EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE
   ALONG THE SERN KS/SWRN MO BORDER 1-2 HRS AFTER SUNRISE PRECLUDES THE
   ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH.
   
   DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED AN INCREASE
   IN TSTM INTENSITY AND THE EVOLUTION OF A BROKEN LINE OVER NERN OK
   /OSAGE COUNTY/ INTO SERN KS /CHAUTAUQUA AND SWRN WILSON COUNTIES/
   BETWEEN 09-10Z.  THIS UPTICK IN TSTM STRENGTH/ORGANIZATION IS
   LOCATED ALONG THE SERN PERIPHERY OF A SRN-ERN KS/NRN OK MCS...AND
   PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSES IS SITUATED WITHIN A ZONE OF STRONGER LOW
   LEVEL WAA AND RESIDUAL MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY EXTENDING EWD
   FROM SERN KS/NERN OK.  THESE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS COMBINED WITH
   STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /AROUND 8 C PER KM/ COULD MAINTAIN THE
   POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SVR HAIL EVENT AND/OR A STRONGER WIND GUST
   FOR AN ADDITIONAL 2-3 HOURS.
   
   MEANWHILE...IR IMAGERY SHOWED WARMING CLOUD TOP TRENDS WITH THE
   PARENT MCS...AND THE 05-07Z HRRR RUNS EACH INDICATED THE DEMISE OF
   THIS TSTM SYSTEM BY 12-13Z AS THE ERN PERIPHERY OF ONGOING STORMS
   REACHES THE SERN KS/SWRN MO BORDER AROUND THAT TIME.
   
   ..PETERS/HART.. 05/19/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...
   
   LAT...LON   37599591 37939545 38139454 37819436 37169446 36899481
               36679529 36549574 36569597 36799607 37599591