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Mesoscale Discussion 694
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0694
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0158 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NEBRASKA...WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA...SOUTHERN
   MINNESOTA...AND FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 231858Z - 232030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS MAY GRADUALLY INTENSIFY WHILE MOVING
   NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED...ALTHOUGH A WW ISSUANCE FOR THIS ACTIVITY
   IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED OVER
   THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL IOWA WHERE BROKEN
   LINES OF CONVECTION HAVE ORGANIZED.  THESE STORMS ARE IN AN
   ENVIRONMENT CONTAINING SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR /35-45 KNOTS/ FOR STORM
   ORGANIZATION...ALTHOUGH WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND RELATIVELY
   WEAK INSTABILITY HAS LIMITED THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THESE STORMS
   SO FAR.  LATEST HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS SUGGESTS
   THAT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
   APPROACHES THE AREA.  INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED HOWEVER...AS
   A CANOPY OF MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE THAT WILL
   TEMPER SURFACE HEATING.  ONLY VERY ISOLATED INSTANCES OF HAIL/WIND
   APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH
   THE AFTERNOON.  

   GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS...A WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED
   FOR THIS ACTIVITY.

   ..COOK/HART.. 05/23/2016


   ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

   LAT...LON   40669557 41079679 41909738 42979727 44139631 45239534
               45599462 45619375 45409301 44899252 43959254 43009281
               41889341 40669557 

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Page last modified: May 23, 2016
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