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Mesoscale Discussion 694
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0694
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1253 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL NM...WEST TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 190553Z - 190730Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
   MORNING AS NEW CELLS DEVELOP ACROSS ECNTRL NM OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS. HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT WW ISSUANCE
   IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE-SCALE
   UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EXTENDING SEWD INTO NW
   MEXICO. A SMALLER FEATURE IS EVIDENT ACROSS SWRN NM WITH MID-LEVEL
   MOISTURE SURGING NEWD ACROSS SCNTRL NM. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF
   THE SMALLER FEATURE WILL AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ECNTRL
   NM EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS GRADUALLY
   INCREASING CONVECTION. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY ONGOING TO
   THE WEST OF CLOVIS AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE INTO WEST TX OVER
   THE NEXT HOUR. ALTHOUGH MLCAPE IS ONLY ESTIMATED AROUND 500 J/KG
   ACROSS THE MCD AREA...INSTABILITY MAY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS AND SFC DEWPOINTS RISE SOME
   ACROSS ERN NM. IN ADDITION...THE WSR-88D VWP AT ALBUQUERQUE SHOWS
   SUBSTANTIAL TURNING OF THE WINDS WITH HEIGHT WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 55
   KT. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT A HAIL THREAT
   WITH ROTATING UPDRAFTS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
   ESPECIALLY AS CELLS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND CONGEAL OVER THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS.

   ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 05/19/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   34380565 34870578 35280551 35550509 35710387 35170280
               34250234 33490257 33010350 33000444 33260496 33970537
               34380565 

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Page last modified: May 19, 2015
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