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Mesoscale Discussion 695
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0695
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0215 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 190715Z - 190845Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A
   COUPLE MORE HOURS ACROSS WCNTRL TX. HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE THREAT IS NOT
   EXPECTED TO PERSIST LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN MCS ONGOING IN
   WCNTRL TX. THE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED ON THE WRN EDGE
   OF A MOIST AIRMASS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE STORMS ARE IN
   THE LOWER 70S F...CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE OF 1500 TO 1800 J/KG
   ACCORDING TO MESOANALYSIS DATA. IN ADDITION...THE WSR-88D VWP AT SAN
   ANGELO SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS
   WITH 50 KT OF WSWLY FLOW JUST ABOVE 6 KM. THIS IS CREATING MODERATE
   TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED
   SEVERE THREAT EARLY THIS MORNING. AT THIS POINT...RADAR TRENDS
   SUGGEST THE FAVORED MODE HAS TRANSITIONED TO LINEAR WITH A BOWING
   STRUCTURE MOVING EWD TOWARD SAN ANGELO. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL
   LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS CELL CLUSTER BUT THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT IS
   EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE MARGINAL AS INSTABILITY DECREASES OVER THE
   NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

   ..BROYLES.. 05/19/2015


   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   30240036 30690146 31070160 31370155 31830127 31660037
               31229986 30240036 

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Page last modified: May 19, 2015
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