MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0695
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1130 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MO...ERN IA...AND SERN MN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 191630Z - 191800Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   OVER THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY REGION DURING EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.
   POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AS WELL AS A FEW
   SUPERCELLS. MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND...BUT
   A COUPLE TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. A WW MIGHT BE NEEDED BEFORE
   18Z.
   
   DISCUSSION...LATE THIS MORNING WELL DEFINED MCV WAS LOCATED OVER
   SWRN IA LIFTING NEWD. ELEVATED STORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER ERN
   IA INTO WRN IL MAY POSE A THREAT FOR HAIL. THESE STORMS MAY
   INTENSIFY FURTHER AND BECOME SURFACE BASED AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   WARMS. IN WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...THE WARM SECTOR IS
   DESTABILIZING...AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE REACHED
   AS TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE 80S. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY
   DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON PROMOTED BY THE DESTABILIZING
   BOUNDARY LAYER AND MESOSCALE ASCENT ATTENDING THE MCV. A BELT OF
   40-50 KT MID-LEVEL WINDS ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF THE MCV ALONG WITH
   30-40 KT SLY LLJ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED
   STORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS.
   
   ..DIAL/KERR.. 05/19/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX...
   
   LAT...LON   41809416 43279465 44639493 44989314 43069135 41529072
               39579082 40469358 41809416