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Mesoscale Discussion 695
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0695
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0112 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL NM AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 251812Z - 252045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE IN THE
   SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT IS INCREASING ACROSS E-CNTRL NM
   IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE PROGRESSING THROUGH THE SERN
   SEMICIRCLE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW W OF THE REGION. LIGHTNING DATA
   AND MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE A RECENT UPTICK IN CONVECTION OVER
   PARTS OF E-CNTRL NM NEAR THE TX BORDER. THIS LIES WITHIN A PLUME OF
   MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE -- E.G. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 50S --
   CIRCULATING AROUND THE WRN/NRN FRINGES OF A MESO-RIDGE DEPOSITED BY
   EARLIER ROUNDS OF WRN/CNTRL-TX CONVECTION. WEAK CONFLUENCE EMBEDDED
   WITHIN THE MOISTURE PLUME PER SFC OBS AMIDST INSOLATION WILL
   ENCOURAGE AN INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION
   DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY AS THE DEEP ASCENT
   STRENGTHENS. COOL MID-LEVEL CONDITIONS -- E.G. H5 TEMPERATURES
   INFERRED TO BE AROUND -12 TO -13C PER 12Z RAOBS AT AMA AND ABQ --
   WILL SUPPORT 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE...WHILE 35-45-KT MID-LEVEL
   SWLYS PER FDX VWP ENHANCE DEEP SHEAR. THESE FACTORS MAY SUPPORT
   SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SVR
   HAIL/WIND THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 05/25/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   35920345 36910170 36450051 35330115 34170198 34320396
               35920345 

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Page last modified: May 25, 2014
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