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Mesoscale Discussion 695
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0695
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0218 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST KS...EAST TX/OK PANHANDLES...WEST OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 231918Z - 232115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SURFACE-BASED STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE
   DRYLINE AND NEAR A LARGE-SCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. A MODERATE TO
   STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
   SIGNIFICANT SEVERE HAIL. BACKED SURFACE WINDS NEAR THE BOUNDARIES
   SHOULD ALSO FOSTER A RISK FOR A COUPLE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS.

   DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 1004 MB SURFACE NEAR THE
   OK PANHANDLE/SOUTHWEST KS BORDER WITH AN ATTENDANT DRYLINE ARCING
   SOUTH ACROSS THE EAST TX PANHANDLE TO THE PERMIAN BASIN. AN OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY WAS EVIDENT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO
   SOUTH-CENTRAL KS...WITH THE NORTH PART OF THIS BOUNDARY SURGING
   WEST. INCREASINGLY AGITATED CU HAS BEEN NOTED NEAR THESE BOUNDARIES
   AND LINGERING MLCIN SHOULD BECOME MINIMAL IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. AIR
   MASS BETWEEN THE DRYLINE AND OUTFLOW ACROSS WEST OK AND THE EAST TX
   PANHANDLE IS BECOMING STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE LIKELY BETWEEN
   2500-3500 J/KG GIVEN UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS.
   SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS SHOULD PROMOTE LARGE HAIL
   AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE MODEST AT
   PRESENT...BACKED SURFACE WINDS /ESPECIALLY NEAR THE OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY/ AND DEGREE OF BUOYANCY SHOULD FAVOR A COUPLE TORNADIC
   SUPERCELLS AS WELL.

   ..GRAMS/HART.. 05/23/2016


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   37040082 37240102 37510118 38010114 38240059 38209986
               37689929 37219890 36529822 36209811 36039830 35709899
               35259959 34369984 33970022 34060076 34360116 35040089
               35940042 36740032 37040082 

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Page last modified: May 23, 2016
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