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Mesoscale Discussion 696
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0696
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0135 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 251835Z - 252030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE POTENTIAL
   FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING TORNADOES IS INCREASING...AND THE
   ISSUANCE OF A TORNADO WATCH IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
   HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...ISENTROPIC ASCENT INVOF A PAIR OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
   DRAPED ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU TO THE TRANS-PECOS WILL CONTINUE
   TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION
   AS DIURNAL SFC HEATING OF RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES.
   THE 12Z DRT SOUNDING SAMPLED A LOWEST-100-MB MEAN MIXING RATIO OF
   15.5 G/KG BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MODIFICATIONS TO THIS
   SOUNDING TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST MLCAPE
   AROUND 1000-2500 J/KG WITH LIMITED MLCINH -- EVEN ON THE COOL/MOIST
   SIDES OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHERE MOIST ELY FLOW EXISTS. WITH
   VERTICALLY VEERING WINDS IN THE LOW-LEVELS ENHANCING EFFECTIVE SRH
   BENEATH 35-50-KT MID-LEVEL SWLY/S...HODOGRAPHS WILL SUPPORT
   SUSTAINED SUPERCELL STORMS. LARGE HAIL -- POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT --
   AND DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE OF CONCERN. A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE
   POSSIBLE GIVEN LOW LCL/S AND THE AFOREMENTIONED WIND PROFILE --
   ESPECIALLY WITH ANY SUPERCELLS INTERACTING WITH THE BOUNDARIES.
   ALREADY...SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE EVOLVING AHEAD OF A DRYLINE S OF
   FST AND JUST S OF THE BIG BEND.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 05/25/2014


   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   29209974 28850258 29660296 30930273 31359914 30879812
               29759827 29209974 

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Page last modified: May 25, 2014
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