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Mesoscale Discussion 696
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0696
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0230 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 231930Z - 232130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE DISCUSSION AREA
   THIS AFTERNOON.  IT IS UNCERTAIN THAT A WW WILL BE NEEDED...ALTHOUGH
   TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WITH AN ATTENDANT
   RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL IF STORMS MATERIALIZE.  BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
   ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA HAS ALLOWED FOR MUCAPE VALUES TO EXCEED
   2000 J/KG.  A WEAK BOUNDARY SEPARATES THIS MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS
   FROM WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  CONVERGENCE ALONG
   THIS BOUNDARY IS RATHER WEAK...AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN IN THIS REGION AS A RESULT.  GIVEN
   SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION /40-45 KNOTS/ AND THE
   AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY...LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A SEVERE WIND
   GUST ARE THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE THREATS WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN
   MATERIALIZE THROUGH SUNSET.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED.

   ..COOK/HART.. 05/23/2016


   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   41789765 41649797 41159889 40349980 39570046 39180026
               39099973 39139882 39229837 39329793 39969730 40469698
               41119690 41669711 41799726 41789765 

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Page last modified: May 23, 2016
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