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Mesoscale Discussion 696
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0696
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0513 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN NM...WEST TX...TX PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 191013Z - 191145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EWD ACROSS
   WEST TX AND THE TX PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAIL WILL BE
   THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT STRONG GUSTY WINDS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. DUE
   TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT...WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EVIDENCE OF A
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NERN NM WHERE SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS APPEARS TO BE WEAKLY
   UNSTABLE IN ERN NM AND WEST TX...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS QUITE STRONG.
   THE AMARILLO WSR-88D VWP SHOWS VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT BELOW 4 KM
   WITH STRONG SPEED SHEAR IN THE MID-LEVELS WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO
   70 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. IN ADDITION...A 30 TO 45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET HAS
   INTENSIFIED ACROSS WEST TX EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE FACTORS ALONG
   WITH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
   AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. SHORT-TERM MODELS
   INCLUDING THE HRRR EXPAND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE EWD ACROSS WEST TX AND
   THE TX PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. THE STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR COMBINED
   WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD BE
   ENOUGH FOR HAIL ESPECIALLY WITH CELLS THAT EXHIBIT ROTATION.
   ALTHOUGH THE LESSER THREAT...STRONG WINDS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH
   CELLS THAT GUST OUT.

   ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 05/19/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   35750251 35650318 35340357 34440362 33410314 33220231
               33490071 34820043 35680107 35750251 

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Page last modified: May 19, 2015
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