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Mesoscale Discussion 697
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0697
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0102 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX INTO SWRN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 191802Z - 192000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY FROM NWRN TX INTO
   SWRN AND SCNTRL OK NEXT FEW HOURS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND A
   FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR
   POSSIBLE WW.

   DISCUSSION...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN OK WWD INTO
   THE SRN TX PANHANDLE. RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RETURNED NWD
   THROUGH WARM SECTOR WHERE LOW 70S F DEWPOINTS RESIDE. BREAKS IN
   MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO DESTABILIZATION WHERE LATEST
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM
   500-1000 J/KG OVER SWRN OK TO AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG OVER NWRN TX.
   STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF WARM FRONT WHERE SOME
   MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. AS THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE...ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY
   DEVELOP IN WARM SECTOR AND ONGOING STORMS MAY INTENSIFY. LATEST VWP
   DATA SHOW 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AROUND 200 M2/S2 NEAR AND
   JUST SOUTH OF WARM FRONT ALONG WITH 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. A
   WEAKNESS IN WIND ABOVE 5 KM EXISTS...BUT SOME INCREASE MAY OCCUR AS
   UPPER JET SWINGS THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH AND INTO THE SRN/CNTRL
   HIGH PLAINS. RICH MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENTLY LARGE 0-2 KM HODOGRAPHS
   WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND A FEW
   TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY FROM SWRN OK INTO NWRN TX. OTHERWISE
   SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR
   LIKELY AS STORMS INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON.

   ..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 05/19/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   34809957 34879767 34069729 32969844 32500008 32910072
               33730019 34809957 

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Page last modified: May 19, 2015
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