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Mesoscale Discussion 697
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0697
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0529 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...WEST/SOUTHWEST TX

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 199...

   VALID 232229Z - 240000Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 199 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE IN THE
   NEAR-TERM ACROSS WEST AND SOUTHWEST TX. TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY
   INCREASE INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...TSTM COVERAGE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS CONVECTIVE
   TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN REACHED ALONG A WAVY DRYLINE...WHICH EXTENDS
   GENERALLY SSWD FROM NEAR KPVW TO KFST. SFC OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THE
   DRYLINE HAS STALLED NEAR I-27/HWY 87...AND WFO LUB HAS ADDED AN
   ADDITIONAL ROW OF COUNTIES TO TORNADO WATCH 199. RECENT RADAR TRENDS
   SUGGEST THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION IS FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHWEST
   TX...WHERE DEVELOPING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSING A THREAT FOR
   LARGE HAIL. STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THUS FAR
   INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS...BUT AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
   REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA ESTIMATING
   MLCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG ALONG/E OF THE CAPROCK. THE
   CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR LARGE-HAIL POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE
   INCREASING INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
   BECOMES MORE LIKELY. TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY MATURE
   STORM AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES THIS EVENING.

   ..ROGERS.. 05/23/2016


   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   33930011 31569989 29610074 29490118 29680132 29710208
               29700265 30760277 32370203 33610205 34460155 34710098
               34610024 33930011 

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