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Mesoscale Discussion 697
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0697
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0202 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN OK AND SERN KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 251902Z - 252100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUST OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
   AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS NOT NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING TO THE E OF A
   MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD RELATED TO EARLIER GENERATIONS OF
   CONVECTION TO THE W/SW. MODIFICATIONS TO THE 12Z OUN RAOB TO ACCOUNT
   FOR SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S AMIDST DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE
   60S TO AROUND 70F SUGGEST SBCAPE AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG WITH
   NEAR-ZERO INHIBITION IN AREAS OF STRONGER INSOLATION. CONVECTION
   WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ALONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONES
   ATTENDANT TO THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD AND WEAK SFC CONFLUENCE
   AXES IN THE BACKGROUND SSELY FLOW PATTERN FARTHER E. RELATIVELY
   MODEST LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW AOB 30 KT SHOULD PREVENT ANY SUBSTANTIAL
   CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION FROM TAKING PLACE. HOWEVER...A FEW WET
   MICROBURSTS MAY OCCUR...WITH ONE OR TWO INSTANCES OF DMGG WIND GUSTS
   POSSIBLE GIVEN WATER LOADING ASSOCIATED WITH 1.50-1.75-INCH PW
   VALUES PER GPS DATA.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 05/25/2014


   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   35469687 37489739 38259656 37539537 35919476 34859470
               34149539 34419621 35469687 

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Page last modified: May 25, 2014
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