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Mesoscale Discussion 698
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0698
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0230 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NORTH TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 191930Z - 192030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF NORTH/CNTRL TX. THE POTENTIAL MAY EXIST FOR ONE OR TWO
   WEAK/BRIEF TORNADOES ACCOMPANYING THESE STORMS. THE THREAT SHOULD
   REMAIN ISOLATED AND MARGINAL ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A WW...BUT TRENDS
   WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
   WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME ACROSS CNTRL/NORTH TX. OCCASIONAL
   MINI-SUPERCELL STRUCTURES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED FEATURING WEAK
   LOW-LEVEL ROTATION. VWP DATA FROM GRK/FWS SHOW VEERING WINDS WITH
   HEIGHT...AND NEAR 100 M^2/S^2 OF 0-1 KM SRH OBSERVED. GIVEN A
   RELATIVELY HOMOGENEOUS WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY SELY WINDS...AND
   THE ABSENCE OF ANY APPARENT MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES...UPDRAFT STRENGTH
   AND ASSOCIATED TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED.
   HOWEVER...RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AND LOW LCL/S...MLCAPE VALUES
   OF 1000-2000 J/KG...AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 25-35 KT...SHOULD
   CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH THE
   POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.

   ..ROGERS/THOMPSON.. 05/19/2015


   ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   33239561 32289518 31099655 30919734 30869844 31299976
               32039976 32999959 33259773 33239561 

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Page last modified: May 19, 2015
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