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Mesoscale Discussion 698
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0698
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0235 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN INTO S-CNTRL ND / N-CNTRL SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 251935Z - 252100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS WILL LIKELY COALESCE FURTHER INTO A CONTINUOUS
   SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE NEXT HOUR. 
   A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF A BRIEF LOCALIZED
   GUSTY WIND THREAT AND PERHAPS MARGINAL HAIL.

   DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WINDSHIFT/FRONTAL ZONE
   FROM EXTREME NWRN MN SWWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE SD/ND
   BORDER.  THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED NEAR AND JUST BEHIND THE SURFACE
   BOUNDARY.  MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOWER- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW
   SAMPLED BY 12Z AREA RAOBS WILL LIKELY LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH.  THE
   ORIENTATION OF THE SW TO NE ORIENTED BOUNDARY AND MEAN FLOW LARGELY
   PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE FEATURE WILL TEND TO DESTRUCTIVELY INTERFERE
   WITH EXISTING DOWNSTREAM CONVECTION AND RESULT IN STORMS REMAINING
   ON OR SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW.  DESPITE
   THESE CONCERNS...A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF A LOCALIZED
   STRONG WIND GUST OR MARGINAL HAIL AS THEY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP DURING
   PEAK HEATING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

   ..SMITH/CORFIDI.. 05/25/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

   LAT...LON   47769720 47639702 47119684 44800080 44780156 45100170
               46419946 47829772 47769720 

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Page last modified: May 25, 2014
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