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Mesoscale Discussion 698
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0698
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0608 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST KS/WESTERN OK/WESTERN NORTH TX AND THE
   EASTERN TX PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 200...

   VALID 232308Z - 240115Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 200 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THIS TORNADO WATCH REMAINS
   CONDUCIVE FOR NEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT AND TO SUSTAIN
   STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THAT MOVE INTO THIS WATCH AREA.  ALL SEVERE
   HAZARDS REMAIN THREATS.  A FEW ADDITIONAL COUNTIES WITHIN THE
   NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TX PANHANDLE MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO WW 200
   AS THE DRYLINE RETREATS TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST.

   DISCUSSION...WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
   TO THE ENE THROUGH EASTERN CO...WITH ITS SOUTHERN EXTENT GLANCING
   THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND SOUTHWEST KS.  LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE
   TX PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OK AND SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH-CENTRAL KS
   APPEAR TO BE RESPONDING TO THIS MIDLEVEL TROUGH WITH WINDS BECOMING
   SOUTHERLY...AND SUBSEQUENTLY ENHANCING EFFECTIVE SRH WITHIN WW 200. 
   TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE
   TX PANHANDLE SHOWED THIS PORTION OF THE DRYLINE WAS RETREATING
   WESTWARD.  ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS GREATEST NEAR THIS
   BOUNDARY...SUPPORTING NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT IN
   THE WESTERN PART OF WW 199...THE INITIAL SEVERE STORM THAT MOVED TO
   THE EAST THROUGH DONLEY COUNTY HAS SINCE WEAKENED.  ALTHOUGH THIS
   STORM WAS MOVING THROUGH THE AXIS OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPE
   OF 3000-3500 J PER KG/...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MUCH WEAKER EAST
   OF THE DRYLINE...AND IS LIKELY LIMITING THE SUSTENANCE OF THIS STORM
   AND ANY OTHER STORMS THAT MOVE TOO FAR EAST OF THE DRYLINE. 
   MEANWHILE...ANY LEFT-MOVING STORMS IN THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF WW 199
   WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SUSTAINED AS THEY TRACK TO THE
   NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE /THE SOUTHWEST PORTION
   OF WW 200/.

   FARTHER NORTH...A WESTWARD-MOVING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WAS BEGINNING
   TO SLOW IN SPEED AS IT MERGED WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
   DRYLINE IN FAR NORTHWEST OK /HARPER AND WOODS COUNTIES/ AND TO THE
   VICINITY OF DDC.  VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING
   DATA INDICATED A COUPLE OF CBS HAD DEVELOPED IN NORTHWEST WOODS
   COUNTY OK AND COMANCHE COUNTY KS.  STORMS DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA
   NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE AVAILABLE CAPE/SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE
   SUPPORTS SUPERCELLS WITH ALL SEVERE HAZARDS.  VISIBLE SATELLITE
   IMAGERY SHOWED ADDITIONAL CU/MODERATE CU FORMING ALONG THE DRYLINE
   FROM CARSON TO ROBERTS COUNTIES TX...SUGGESTING ADDITIONAL COUNTIES
   MAY NEED TO ADDED TO WW 200 IN THE TX PANHANDLE AS STORMS FORM ALONG
   THE RETREATING DRYLINE WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
   SUPERCELLS.

   ..PETERS.. 05/23/2016


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   34760106 35830062 37080065 37530103 38250107 38279964
               37969906 37399883 37309841 36509854 36269888 35959869
               35009864 34189874 33879906 33499952 33549992 34030004
               34640012 34760106 

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