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Mesoscale Discussion 699
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0699
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0237 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN NM AND W TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 251937Z - 252130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING RISK OF
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS MAY
   NECESSITATE WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE COOL SIDE OF AN OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY HAS BACKED UP AGAINST A LEE TROUGH ORIENTED N/S OVER ERN
   NM. THIS AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY IN MANY AREAS OWING TO
   WIDESPREAD INSOLATION. ONE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE TX S
   PLAINS...THOUGH TRENDS IN VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE PERIPHERAL
   EROSION OF THE STRATUS DECK SUGGESTING DIURNAL MIXING ON ITS
   FRINGES. WITH SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AMIDST
   DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 50S...MLCAPE AROUND 500-1000 J/KG
   EXISTS E OF THE LEE TROUGH -- LOWEST VALUES WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS
   PERSIST. ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED AT THE ERN
   EDGE OF NEARLY DRY-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN THE SFC-3 KM LAYER OVER
   THE HIGHER TERRAIN -- WHERE OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS HAVE BEEN
   ENHANCED. AND...WITH STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER ASCENT PRECEDING AN
   APPROACHING MID-LEVEL VORT LOBE...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE
   IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

   GIVEN 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
   STRUCTURES INCLUDING POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DMGG
   WINDS COULD EVOLVE. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
   THE RESIDUAL STATIC STABILITY FROM THE EARLIER COLD POOL...AND ITS
   POTENTIAL TO SPATIALLY CONFINE THE SVR POTENTIAL OVER THE HIGH
   PLAINS.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 05/25/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   31010378 32440445 33840428 34500309 34310177 33080150
               31940166 31650303 31010378 

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Page last modified: May 25, 2014
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