MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0699
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0243 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN THROUGH NERN AL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 191943Z - 192115Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WWD AND SWWD THROUGH MIDDLE
   TN AND NERN AL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STRONGER ACTIVITY
   WILL POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
   TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   DISCUSSION...THIS AFTERNOON A LARGE CLUSTER OF ONGOING MULTICELL
   STORMS EXTENDS FROM NRN GA THROUGH ERN MIDDLE TN. WEST OF THIS
   ACTIVITY...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE ALONG THE ERN
   FRINGE OF THE STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME WITH MLCAPE AROUND
   3000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IT IS LIKELY THAT STRONGER CONVECTIVE
   INHIBITION EXISTS WITH WWD EXTENT INTO THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR.
   WHILE SWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS FAVOR WSWWD PROPAGATION OF THE
   STORMS...WLY MID-UPPER FLOW AND AT LEAST MODEST CONVECTIVE
   INHIBITION MAY BE LIMITING FACTORS FOR RAPID WWD DEVELOPMENT AND
   LOWERS OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.
   NEVERTHELESS...STORMS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AT LEAST
   SLOWLY WWD AND SWWD THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME NWWD BACKBUILDING MIGHT
   ALSO OCCUR. THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR A RISK FOR ISOLATED
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
   
   ..DIAL/KERR.. 05/19/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...
   
   LAT...LON   36208632 35608585 34448553 34038594 34298659 35298673
               36018676 36208632