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Mesoscale Discussion 699
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0699
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0333 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 192033Z - 192230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER A LARGE PART
   OF WRN TX THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
   POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG TO
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A CONDITIONAL THREAT EXIST FOR A FEW
   TORNADOES...MAINLY FROM THE SERN TX PANHANDLE SWD INTO ERN PORTIONS
   OF WRN TX.

   DISCUSSION...THIS AFTERNOON A SLOWLY MODIFYING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   EXTENDS FROM THE SERN THROUGH THE WRN TX PANHANDLE. A SHARPENING
   DRYLINE EXTENDS SWD THROUGH EXTREME ERN NM WITH A LEE TROUGH ACROSS
   WRN TX FROM WEST OF LUBBOCK SWD TO NEAR FORT STOCKTON. DIABATIC
   WARMING HAS RESULTED IN MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER MUCH OF WRN TX
   WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 J/KG OVER THE SRN TX PANHANDLE TO 2000 J/KG
   FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS WRN TX. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER
   THE TX PANHANDLE NORTH OF MODIFYING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND OVER THE
   MOUNTAINS OF SWRN TX. CUMULUS IS ALSO INCREASING ALONG SHARPENING
   DRYLINE. WHERE SFC BASED STORMS DEVELOP...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN
   FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AS A MID LEVEL JET SWINGS THROUGH BASE OF
   UPPER TROUGH INTO THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. TORNADO THREAT IS
   CONDITIONAL UPON WHETHER ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG DRYLINE OR
   LEE TROUGH CAN MOVE EWD AND INTERACT WITH MODIFYING BOUNDARY LAYER
   IN VICINITY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE SERN TX PANHANDLE AND
   FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WRN TX. STORM COVERAGE COULD
   REMAIN SOMEWHAT ISOLATED...ESPECIALLY WITH SWD EXTENT THROUGH WRN TX
   WHERE MID-UPPER DRYING IS OCCURRING IN WAKE OF EJECTING LEAD
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

   ..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 05/19/2015


   ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

   LAT...LON   30760233 33360224 35550245 35790130 35040017 34180019
               31240116 30760233 

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Page last modified: May 19, 2015
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