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Mesoscale Discussion 700
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0700
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1122 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE/WESTERN NORTH TX/SOUTHWEST
   OK AND NORTHWEST OK/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 240422Z - 240545Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...NEW TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN AND NEAR THE
   ONGOING CLUSTER OF STORMS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE...
   THOUGH SEVERITY MAY BE LIMITED GIVEN TIME OF DAY AS THIS ACTIVITY
   MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST INTO SOUTHWEST OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX.  A
   NEW SEVERE-WEATHER WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR SOUTHWEST OK...
   WESTERN NORTH TX...AND THE SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE. 

   FARTHER NORTH...STORMS NEAR THE NORTHWEST OK/KS BORDER SHOULD TEND
   TO MAINTAIN A WEAKENING TREND...WITH THE SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT
   DIMINISHING AS WELL.

   DISCUSSION...A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET HAS STRENGTHENED THIS EVENING
   ACROSS WEST TX...RESULTING IN ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE
   PER AREA VWPS.  FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE LLJ AND
   INCREASING DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER
   TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY SUGGESTS NEW STORM
   DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT.  THE SOUTHERLY LLJ
   WILL MAINTAIN A FEED OF RESIDUAL MODERATELY STRONG INSTABILITY INTO
   THIS COMPLEX.  THIS COUPLED WITH THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL
   LAPSE RATES /8-8.5 C PER KM/ AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 35 KT
   SUGGESTS ORGANIZED STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP...PRODUCING
   LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.  ALTHOUGH THE TORNADO
   THREAT HAS LIKELY GREATLY DIMINISHED GIVEN TIME OF DAY WITH
   INCREASING SURFACE-BASED INHIBITION...THE LARGE HODOGRAPH CURVATURE
   /EFFECTIVE SRH OF 300-400 M2 PER S2/ PER RAP ANALYSIS AND SURFACE
   DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 F MAY ALLOW FOR A NON-ZERO
   TORNADO THREAT.

   ..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 05/24/2016


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   34380090 35010129 35890099 37090017 37349974 36519913
               35389867 34539848 34109855 33859905 34029969 34380090 

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Page last modified: May 24, 2016
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