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Mesoscale Discussion 701
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0701
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0343 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TX

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 185...

   VALID 252043Z - 252215Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 185 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING TORNADOES
   CONTINUES ACROSS ONGOING TORNADO WATCH 185.

   DISCUSSION...VERTICALLY VEERING WIND/WAA PROFILES PER AREA VWP DATA
   CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE REGIME OF ONGOING LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ACROSS
   THE REGION. A LINE SEGMENT CROSSING PARTS OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY
   HAS RECENTLY ASSUMED BOWING CHARACTERISTICS AS MOIST ELY INFLOW
   BREEDS FORWARD PROPAGATION INTO A DIURNALLY DESTABILIZING
   ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. THIS
   ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE DMGG WIND GUSTS AS IT ADVANCES EWD. A TORNADO
   CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN ASSOCIATION WITH LINE-EMBEDDED MESO-VORTICES.
   ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY BLOSSOM FROM RICH MOISTURE STREAMING NWD
   FROM THE SRN FLANK OF THE LINE SEGMENT TO PARTS OF S-CNTRL TX...WITH
   AN ACCOMPANYING RISK FOR SVR WIND GUSTS...HAIL...AND POSSIBLY A
   TORNADO.

   ALSO...AN INTENSE SUPERCELL STORM ACROSS NRN COAHUILA JUST E OF THE
   SERRANIAS DEL BURRO IS EXHIBITING MARKED DEVIANT MOTION TO THE RIGHT
   OF THE MEAN-WIND VECTOR. WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
   THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM...PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
   IT MAY CROSS THE RIO GRANDE RIVER INTO ADJACENT PARTS OF TEXAS AND
   IMPACT LOCATIONS FROM SRN VAL VERDE COUNTY TO KINNEY COUNTY TO
   MAVERICK COUNTY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MUCH STRONGER BUOYANCY S
   OF RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SUPPORTING THIS STORM MAY YIELD VERY
   LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS...ALONG WITH TORNADOES GIVEN LOW LCLS AND
   BACKED SFC FLOW.

   ..COHEN.. 05/25/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   28940329 31110328 32259821 30079826 28940329 

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Page last modified: May 25, 2014
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