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Mesoscale Discussion 701
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0701
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1151 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 240451Z - 240645Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTMS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
   PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS...WITH UPSCALE GROWTH POSSIBLE INTO
   AN MCS.  GREATEST SEVERE-WEATHER THREATS SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS.

   DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED STORMS
   CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY AND SOUTH OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL
   KS/NEB BORDER...AND SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG A WIND SHIFT THROUGH TREGO
   AND GOVE COUNTIES.  MEANWHILE...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED
   CLOUD-TOP COOLING WITH THESE STORMS AND ATTENDANT TO CU/MODERATE CU
   FORMING TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH SCOTT COUNTY KS TO KIOWA COUNTY CO.
   THIS INCREASE IN CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ATTENDANT TO AN INCREASE
   IN LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WITHIN THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING
   SOUTHERLY LLJ EXTENDING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS.  THIS JET WILL
   MAINTAIN A FEED OF MODERATE TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY /MUCAPE
   1500-3000 J PER KG/...WHILE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT
   SUPPORTS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR STORM ORGANIZATION WITH ANY SUSTAINED
   STORMS.  LARGE HAIL /POSSIBLY UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER/ AND
   DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.  

   00Z NSSL-WRF 4 KM/03Z ESRL-HRRR AND LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE
   OPERATIONAL HRRR HAVE INDICATED A SCENARIO FOR ADDITIONAL TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST AND/OR WESTERN KS...WITH
   UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS INTO CENTRAL KS.

   ..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 05/24/2016


   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   38830127 39779943 39889778 38709689 37509673 37169774
               37399956 38200125 38830127 

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Page last modified: May 24, 2016
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