Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 702
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 702 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0702
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0638 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN PA...NRN NJ...SERN NY...WRN
   CT...AND WRN MA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 192338Z - 200145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A MARGINAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS WILL EXIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WW IS NOT EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR TRENDS ACROSS THE MCD AREA HAVE SHOWN A
   GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST
   HOUR. THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A COLD
   FRONT THAT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS
   EVENING. WITH SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND
   DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...RAP MESOANALYSIS
   ESTIMATES MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG IS PRESENT ACROSS THIS REGION
   AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODESTLY ENHANCED MID-LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED
   WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO THE N OF THE REGION IS
   CONTRIBUTING TO 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. 

   THIS COMBINATION OF WEAK INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR SHOULD
   SUPPORT SEMI-ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY
   SEVERE HAIL AND A DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS. AS LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL WITH THE LOSS OF
   DAYTIME HEATING...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH. DUE TO THE
   MARGINAL/ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   ..GLEASON/HART.. 05/19/2015


   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

   LAT...LON   41187361 40887403 40867466 41027526 41367561 42077452
               42837338 42767224 42607195 41757278 41187361 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 20, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities