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Mesoscale Discussion 702
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0702
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0352 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE AND N FL / SRN INTO
   N-CNTRL GA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 252052Z - 252315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLD WET MICROBURSTS POTENTIALLY CAPABLE OF POCKETS OF
   LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS BEFORE DIURNAL STABILIZATION AND/OR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING
   LESSENS THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORM THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE FL PANHANDLE EWD ALONG
   THE FL/GA BORDER AND NWD INTO CNTRL AND N-CNTRL GA SHOW A VERY
   WARM/MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOWER 90S AND
   DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S.  SIZABLE SURFACE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS
   IN EXCESS OF 25 DEG F AND VERY STEEP 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES /9 DEG C PER
   KM/ HAVE RESULTED IN AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR WET MICROBURSTS
   GIVEN PW/S AOA 1.25 INCH AND DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS PER RAP
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS.  GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF THE AGGREGATE SEA
   BREEZE/CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE TENDENCY FOR NEW STORM
   DEVELOPMENT TO PROPAGATE TO THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE INTERIOR
   PARTS OF FL/GA...A CONTINUATION OF A STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
   DIURNAL STABILIZATION AND/OR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING WILL
   CONSIDERABLY DIMINISH THE SEVERE THREAT AREA WITH TIME.  UNTIL
   THEN...WET MICROBURSTS CAPABLE OF SPORADIC POCKETS OF WIND DAMAGE
   SEEM LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS.  THE MORE INTENSE CORES
   MAY POTENTIALLY YIELD A HAIL THREAT.

   ..SMITH/CORFIDI.. 05/25/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...MOB...

   LAT...LON   32868350 33398448 34018482 34508346 33068144 31798189
               30298200 29518231 29938330 30628532 30958674 31278692
               31518623 31188465 31318342 32038311 32868350 

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Page last modified: May 25, 2014
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