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Mesoscale Discussion 703
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0703
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0612 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH SWRN TX

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 185...

   VALID 252312Z - 260045Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 185 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST ACROSS SRN PORTION OF
   TORNADO WATCH 185 THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND
   PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO REMAIN POSSIBLE. LONE SUPERCELL STORM OVER
   NRN MEXICO IS CROSSING INTO SRN KINNEY AND NRN MAVERICK COUNTY. THIS
   STORM APPEARS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING AN EXPANSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   EXTENDS FROM CNTRL TX SWWD TO NEAR DEL RIO. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
   THE ATMOSPHERE IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...AND NEAR SFC WINDS REMAIN
   BACKED TO SELY BENEATH A BELT OF 35-40 KT MID-LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED
   WITH THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION. THIS HAS RESULTED IN 0-6 KM SHEAR
   FROM 35-45 KT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WHERE STORMS CONTINUE TO
   DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE STORMS
   DEVELOPING ACROSS CNTRL TX APPEAR OUTFLOW DOMINANT...AND AT LEAST A
   MODEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
   EXISTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE MOST ORGANIZED STORM WITH ROBUST
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES IS CROSSING INTO SRN KINNEY COUNTY AND MAY
   EVENTUALLY AFFECT NRN MAVERICK COUNTY. OTHER STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD
   OF THIS STORM MIGHT ALSO TAKE ON SUPERCELL STRUCTURES GIVEN
   FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. SEVERE TREAT WILL
   LIKELY BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER 02Z AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO
   STABILIZE.

   ..DIAL.. 05/25/2014


   ATTN...WFO...EWX...

   LAT...LON   29500108 29919991 30519890 30899824 30109835 29409906
               28620023 29130066 29500108 

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Page last modified: May 26, 2014
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