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Mesoscale Discussion 703
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0703
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1059 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH MO...FAR NORTH AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 241559Z - 241800Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY
   ACCOMPANY STORM CLUSTERS LIKELY EVOLVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO
   EARLY/MID-AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...STORM CLUSTERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KS INTO SOUTHWEST
   MO APPEAR TO BE TRANSITIONING TO SURFACE-BASED AS MODIFIED 12Z SGF
   RAOB SUGGESTS MODERATE MLCAPE IS NOW PREVALENT WITH MINIMAL MLCIN.
   WITH AMPLE INSOLATION SOUTH OF THIS CLUSTER...FURTHER DIABATIC
   DESTABILIZATION SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY
   BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS MCS MAY STRUGGLE TO GREATLY
   ORGANIZE GIVEN MODEST DEEP SHEAR AND VEER-BACK-VEER WIND PROFILES
   SAMPLED BY SGF VWP DATA. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR WIND GUSTS
   TO BECOME STRONG AND PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGE...AS WELL AS A THREAT
   FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

   ..GRAMS/HART.. 05/24/2016


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

   LAT...LON   37509373 37659317 37839274 37899231 37679163 37119069
               36569060 36209084 36169189 36289315 36469402 36729406
               37069399 37509373 

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Page last modified: May 24, 2016
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