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Mesoscale Discussion 704
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0704
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0956 AM CDT Fri May 12 2017

   Areas affected...Southeast Louisiana...Southern Mississippi and
   Southwest Alabama

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 121456Z - 121730Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated wind damage threat along with a potential for
   a brief tornado will exist across southeast Louisiana and southern
   Mississippi over the next couple of hours. Weather watch issuance
   may be needed across the region late this morning.

   DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a corridor of
   low-level moisture from southeast Louisiana extending northeastward
   into southern Mississippi. A line of convection is located along the
   western edge of the moist corridor with surface dewpoints ahead of
   the line in the upper 60s to mid 70s F. Surface temperatures have
   warmed into the upper 70s to near 80 F across southeast Louisiana
   which has helped the line to become a bit more organized over the
   last hour. The line is being supported by strong large-scale ascent
   associated with a shortwave trough moving across the lower
   Mississippi Valley evident on water vapor imagery. The line was also
   located near the axis of the strongest mid-level flow which was
   helping to create moderate deep-layer shear, sampled by the New
   Orleans WSR-88D VWP. The VWP shows 0-6 km of 50-55 kt with veered
   southwesterly flow in the lowest 1 km AGL. This wind profile could
   be favorable for some damaging wind gusts with cells that obtain a
   bowing structure. Although low-level shear appears relatively weak,
   a brief tornado can not be ruled out along a gust front.

   ..Broyles/Goss.. 05/12/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   31988866 31828949 30739046 30109140 29599182 29249156
               29159075 29378993 30228890 31558791 31988866 

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Page last modified: May 12, 2017
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