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Mesoscale Discussion 704
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0704
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0713 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM THROUGH WRN TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 186...

   VALID 260013Z - 260145Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 186
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...WHILE SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WIND MAY PERSIST NEXT COUPLE HOURS OR SO FROM SERN NM INTO PORTIONS
   OF WRN TX...OVERALL THREAT APPEARS INCREASINGLY MARGINAL.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING AN EXPANSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS
   PUSHED WWD AND IS NOW LOCATED FROM THE TRANS-PECOS ARE OF WRN TX NWD
   INTO ERN NM. EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY...SFC TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN
   THE LOW 70S ACROSS WRN TX INDICATING THE ATMOSPHERE IN THIS REGION
   HAS NOT FULLY RECOVERED OR DESTABILIZED SUFFICIENTLY. LATEST
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOW AN AXIS OF MLCAPE BELOW 1000 J/KG AND ONLY
   MODEST 25-30 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. STORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN AN
   AXIS FROM NORTH OF ROSWELL NM TO WEST OF AMARILLO HAVE UNDERGONE A
   GENERAL WEAKENING TREND...AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT
   SIGNIFICANT RE-INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR GIVEN LOSS OF DIABATIC
   WARMING. MOREOVER...THE MIDLAND 00Z RAOB INDICATED AN INVERSION
   BASED JUST ABOVE 850 MB SUGGESTING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL
   INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.

   ..DIAL.. 05/26/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   33200417 35980210 36770142 36820021 34070148 32080247
               31650355 31970449 33200417 

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Page last modified: May 26, 2014
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