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Mesoscale Discussion 705
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0705
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0954 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM THROUGH WRN TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 186...

   VALID 260254Z - 260400Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 186
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
   PERSIST NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPING OVER SE
   NM BETWEEN HOBBS AND CLOVIS NM AND SPREADING INTO WRN TX. OVERALL
   THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY ROBUST...AND WW 186 WILL LIKELY
   BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT ITS SCHEDULED EXPIRATION TIME OF 04Z.

   DISCUSSION...CLUSTER OF STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER SERN NM BETWEEN
   HOBBS AND CLOVIS...POSSIBLY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING FORCING FOR
   ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A VORTICITY MAXIMUM ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF
   THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW. THE DOWNSTREAM SFC LAYER NEVER RECOVERED
   COMPLETELY FROM STABILIZING EFFECTS OF EARLIER OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARIES...AND THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL FURTHER
   STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER LOW IS
   CONTRIBUTING TO 30-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR MODEST
   UPDRAFT ROTATION WITHIN SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER...THE MARGINAL
   DOWNSTREAM THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SERVE AS A LIMITING
   FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING.

   ..DIAL.. 05/26/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   32110435 34250307 34480157 31920255 32110435 

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Page last modified: May 26, 2014
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