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Mesoscale Discussion 705
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0705
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0125 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 241825Z - 242030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING JUST NORTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   MAY INTENSIFY AND DEVELOP INTO A CLUSTER WITH PRIMARY RISKS OF
   ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND.

   DISCUSSION...18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A WAVY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   ALONG THE NORTHEAST OK/SOUTHEAST KS BORDER DOWN INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
   OK AND UP INTO SOUTHWEST KS. A TRIO OF CELLS RECENTLY DEVELOPED
   ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. AMID A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH
   MLCAPE OF 3000-3500 J/KG...THESE CELLS MAY EVOLVE INTO A CLUSTER /AS
   SIMULATED BY THE 17Z NCEP-PARALLEL-HRRR/. WITH REGIONAL VWP DATA
   DEPICTING INDICATIONS OF VEER-BACK WINDS FROM 0-3 KM AGL AND STRONG
   MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW LIKELY CONFINED WELL TO THE
   SOUTHWEST...HODOGRAPH SHAPE APPEARS UNFAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINING
   DISCRETE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. BUT GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
   AND PRESENCE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...IT SEEMS PLAUSIBLE THAT AN
   ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT MAY OCCUR.

   ..GRAMS/HART.. 05/24/2016


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

   LAT...LON   36629851 36899692 36919642 36659613 36199611 35859676
               35699745 35809821 36029861 36299876 36629851 

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Page last modified: May 24, 2016
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