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Mesoscale Discussion 706
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0706
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0407 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL TEXAS INTO MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL AREAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 260907Z - 261100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED INTENSE STORM MAY CONTINUE TO BE ACCOMPANIED
   BY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
   REGION THROUGH 11-13Z.  IT CURRENTLY DOES NOT SEEM THAT A WATCH IS
   NEEDED DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE AND DURATION OF
   THE THREAT...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...A SUSTAINED FOCUSED AREA OF UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
   BENEATH DIFLUENT...AND LIKELY DIVERGENT...HIGH LEVEL FLOW APPEARS TO
   BE MAINTAINING THE ISOLATED ONGOING INTENSE CONVECTIVE CELL NOW
   SLOWLY PROGRESSING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF SAN ANTONIO.  THE
   ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THIS REGION APPEARS CHARACTERIZED BY LOW-LEVEL
   AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL
   DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH LOW THROUGH MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS ARE NOT
   PARTICULARLY STRONG.  HOWEVER...MODEST SOUTHERLY INFLOW OF FAIRLY
   HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT AIR /INCREASING IN EXCESS OF 1.75
   INCHES/...BENEATH RESIDUALLY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE 700 TO 500 MB
   LAYER...IS CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT CAPE IN THE FAVORABLY COLD
   MIXED-PHASE LAYER TO SUPPORT GENERATION OF LARGE HAIL AND FREQUENT
   CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.

   ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT CONVECTION WILL INCREASE APPRECIABLY
   IN COVERAGE...THERE APPEARS LITTLE REASON FOR THIS CELL TO WEAKEN
   SUBSTANTIALLY PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.  AS SUCH...THE SEVERE HAIL THREAT
   MAY CONTINUE ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS A RELATIVELY CONFINED
   AREA EAST SOUTHEAST OF SAN ANTONIO.  IT MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE
   QUESTION THAT A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONG SURFACE GUSTS APPROACHING
   OR EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE TRACK OF THIS
   STORM AS IT APPROACHES THE VICTORIA AREA DURING THE 11-12Z TIME
   FRAME.

   ..KERR/EDWARDS.. 05/26/2014


   ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   29139887 29219654 28599685 28359792 28449895 29139887 

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Page last modified: May 26, 2014
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