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Mesoscale Discussion 706
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0706
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0231 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST KS TO EAST TX PANHANDLE/WEST OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 241931Z - 242130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
   DRYLINE AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO
   EARLY EVENING. VERY LARGE HAIL...A FEW TORNADIC STORMS...AND
   ISOLATED SEVERE WINDS ARE LIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A CYCLONE NEAR HAMILTON
   COUNTY KS WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL TX
   PANHANDLE...A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS INTO
   NORTH-CENTRAL KS AND ANOTHER CONFLUENT BOUNDARY THROUGH NORTHWEST
   OK. THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR AIR MASS IS STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
   OF 2500-3500 J/KG AMID UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS.
   HIGH-BASED CU HAS COMMENCED BEHIND THE DRYLINE IN THE TX PANHANDLE
   AND STRENGTHENING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TIED TO THE
   LEFT-EXIT REGION OF AN APPROACHING SUBTROPICAL UPPER JET SHOULD
   RESULT IN STORM INITIATION BY 21Z. FARTHER NORTH....CLUMPING CU NEAR
   THE CYCLONE SHOULD INITIATE INTO STORMS IN A SIMILAR TIME FRAME.

   VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 9 DEG C/KM FROM 700-500 MB AS
   SAMPLED BY 19Z AMA RAOB WILL BE QUITE CONDUCIVE TO INTENSE UPDRAFT
   ACCELERATION ONCE STORMS INITIATE. AS SUCH...VERY LARGE HAIL SHOULD
   BE THE PRIMARY INITIAL HAZARD. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS THIS
   EVENING...TORNADO/WIND POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY INCREASE TOWARDS 00Z.

   ..GRAMS/HART.. 05/24/2016


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   37010082 37540108 38180176 38540171 38620121 38480037
               38259977 37269911 36479911 35149970 34300046 34220106
               34480137 36020087 37010082 

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Page last modified: May 24, 2016
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