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Mesoscale Discussion 706
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0706
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0110 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...RED RIVER VALLEY

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 191...

   VALID 200610Z - 200745Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 191 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING ACROSS
   REMAINING VALID PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA.  AS SUCH...THE WATCH WILL
   BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 07Z.  ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER PRIMARILY IN
   THE FORM OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
   INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER MAINLY NORTH TX.  AN ADDITIONAL
   WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS POINT.

   DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR DATA INDICATE A CONSOLIDATION OF
   DISCRETE STORMS INTO A LARGER-SCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACROSS NWRN TX
   OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS.  FARTHER TO THE EAST...A MORE RECENT
   SUPERCELL OVER DENTON COUNTY HAS SHOWN SOME WEAKENING WHILE MOVING
   INTO SRN COOKE COUNTY.  THESE OBSERVATIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
   WITH VARIOUS CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS WHICH SUGGEST THAT
   CONVECTION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ELONGATED IN W-E FASHION ALONG
   THE RED RIVER WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD TRANSITIONING TO EXCESSIVE
   RAINFALL.  HOWEVER IN THE NEAR TERM...THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER
   RISK WILL EXIST WITH AN HP SUPERCELL AS IT TRACKS FROM CLAY INTO
   MONTAGUE COUNTIES.

   ..MEAD.. 05/20/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

   LAT...LON   33609995 34119996 34449882 34709720 34739630 34669582
               33929596 33399732 33299861 33349968 33609995 

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Page last modified: May 20, 2015
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