MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0706
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0640 AM CDT TUE MAY 05 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...POTIONS NW TX...WRN/CENTRAL OK...ERN TX PANHANDLE.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 051140Z - 051345Z
   
   ELEVATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER HEMPHILL COUNTY TX...WITH
   ADDITIONAL/COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND LIKELY INCIPIENT DEVELOPMENT OVER
   ADJACENT AREAS OF ERN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK.  TSTMS ALSO MAY FORM
   WITHIN NEXT 2-3 HOURS IN INITIALLY SEPARATE/E-W OR ESE-WNW ALIGNED
   BAND OVER NW TX OR SW OK...POTENTIALLY MERGING WITH ACTIVITY MOVING
   EWD-ESEWD FROM PANHANDLE AND WRN OK.  MAIN THREAT IS LARGE HAIL.
   
   WAVY SFC WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM LOW OVER SERN NM...ESEWD TOWARD
   I-10 CORRIDOR FROM FST-JCT -- THEN GENERALLY EWD TOWARD CLL AND SWRN
   LA.  WARM FRONT WILL DRIFT NWD THROUGH MIDMORNING.  MORE ROBUST NWD
   SURGE EXPECTED LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON...ACROSS I-20 AND TOWARD
   RED RIVER AREA PER DAY-1 OUTLOOK.  IN MEANTIME...STRONG LLJ -- 45-50
   KT -- ALREADY IS IN PLACE AND CONTRIBUTING TO VIGOROUS WAA AND MOIST
   ADVECTION ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA.  THIS WILL PROVIDE ISENTROPIC
   ASCENT TO LFC WELL N OF INITIAL WARM FRONT POSITION...AND FAVORABLE
   STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW ALOFT ACROSS RED RIVER REGION AND WRN OK. 
   RELATED THETAE INCREASE AT BASE OF EFFECTIVE INFLOW LAYER WILL
   JUXTAPOSE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES CHARACTERISTIC OF EML...BOOSTING
   ELEVATED MUCAPE TO AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OVER RED RIVER REGION AND
   500-1000 J/KG OVER PORTIONS SWRN/W-CENTRAL OK THROUGH 15Z.  AS
   BUOYANT PROFILES DEEPEN INTO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...EFFECTIVE SHEAR
   SHOULD STRENGTHEN...REACHING MAGNITUDES OF 40-50 KT.  FCST VEERING
   OF LLJ SHOULD SUPPORT EWD/SEWD SHIFT AND EXPANSION OF CONVECTION
   ACROSS AREA REMAINDER MORNING.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 05/05/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...
   
   LAT...LON   32949841 32849937 33290003 35950071 36440034 36389973
               35989812 35329753 34229733 33269759 32949841