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Mesoscale Discussion 707
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0707
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0135 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 201835Z - 202100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER
   THE SWRN TX AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PRIMARY THREATS
   WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NCNTRL
   TX SWWD TO SOUTH OF MIDLAND. WHAT APPEARS TO BE A TERRAIN INDUCED
   LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR FORT STOCKTON ADVANCING SWD
   WITH A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTH AND SWWD FROM THIS
   FEATURE. LOW CLOUDS HAVE MIXED OUT PROMOTING HEATING OF THE SFC
   LAYER AND 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS
   DEVELOPMENT ALONG SWD ADVANCING FRONT AND TROUGH FEATURE WHERE THE
   ATMOSPHERE HAS DESTABILIZED...AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM HAS
   ALREADY FORMED OVER THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF MARFA. CAPPING INVERSION
   RESULTING FROM A MODEST EML MIGHT DELAY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ALONG
   AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES...BUT AT LEAST ISOLATED TO WIDELY
   SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM VERTICAL
   SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT IS SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STORMS TO DEVELOP
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN
   THREATS.

   ..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 05/20/2015


   ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   30590292 31190321 31620306 31860243 31640167 30920169
               29990201 29850255 29670283 29970335 30590292 

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Page last modified: May 20, 2015
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