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Mesoscale Discussion 707
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0707
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1009 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL TX TO THE MIDDLE
   TX COAST

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 261509Z - 261615Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE
   MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME STORM ACTIVITY STRENGTHENING
   IN INTENSITY.  THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
   HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  A TORNADO THREAT CANNOT BE RULED
   OUT...BUT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO IN VICINITY AND SOUTH OF A W-E
   ORIENTED BOUNDARY OVER S-CENTRAL TX TO THE MIDDLE TX COAST.

   DISCUSSION...MORNING TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE
   OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A GENERALLY W-E ORIENTED CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM KINNEY COUNTY EWD TO 30 SSE SAT TO NEAR THE
   CLUSTER OF STORMS LOCATED 10 NE VCT. A RECENT INCREASE IN STORM
   INTENSITY WAS ALSO NOTED FARTHER W NEAR THE SRN EXTENT OF A
   LONG-LIVED MCS WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE W-E BOUNDARY.  ADDITIONAL
   STORMS...MAINLY ELEVATED...HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG AND N OF THE
   W-E BOUNDARY.  A SLY LLJ WILL BE SUSTAINED TODAY EXTENDING INTO
   SOUTH CENTRAL TX REGION TO THE TX COAST MAINTAINING LOW LEVEL WAA
   FOR ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN RICH MOISTURE /PW AOA 2 INCH
   PER 12Z SOUNDINGS/.  DESPITE LIMITED SURFACE HEATING GIVEN CLOUD
   COVER...STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES/COOLING 500 MB TEMPERATURES
   FROM W-E WILL AID IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION AND SUBSEQUENT INCREASE
   IN STORM INTENSITIES INTO THE AFTERNOON.  

   STRENGTHENING WLY HIGH-LEVEL WINDS WILL AID IN STORM VENTING TODAY
   ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TX...WHILE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO
   35-50 KT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION/SVR THREAT. 
   VERTICAL VEERING WINDS IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL ENHANCE THE
   POTENTIAL FOR LOW-LEVEL STORM ROTATION AND AN ATTENDANT TORNADO
   THREAT...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE W-E BOUNDARY.

   ..PETERS/CORFIDI.. 05/26/2014


   ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   28599614 28449674 28259701 28329784 28739859 29019946
               29199954 29449935 29779900 30119864 30449827 30419762
               30309675 29709617 28859554 28599614 

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Page last modified: May 26, 2014
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