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Mesoscale Discussion 707
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0707
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0334 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL/NE CO

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 203...

   VALID 242034Z - 242200Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 203 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...ONGOING TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEWD WITH
   THE THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND A FEW
   TORNADOES CONTINUING FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...KFTG RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A PAIR OF SUPERCELL TSTMS IN
   THE VICINITY OF THE DENVER METRO WITH MRMS MESH RECENTLY ESTIMATING
   HAIL SIZE APPROACHING 2 INCHES. SURFACE ENVIRONMENT IMMEDIATELY
   DOWNSTREAM OF THIS CURRENT ACTIVITY IS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES
   IN THE MID 70S...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S...AND SELY WINDS
   AROUND 15 KT. RECENT MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000
   J PER KG. SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS A BIT FARTHER
   DOWNSTREAM /ACROSS NE CO/ WITH MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATING MLCAPE CLOSER
   TO 1500 J PER KG. 

   IN ADDITION TO THIS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...THE
   KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
   WITH SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OF THE MID-LEVEL FLOW POSSIBLE.
   SELY UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
   SEVERAL HOURS...CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASED SHEAR AND CONTINUED
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. 

   GIVEN ALL OF THESE FACTORS...THE SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
   FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS...INCLUDING
   A FEW TORNADOES...ARE POSSIBLE.

   ..MOSIER.. 05/24/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   39450489 40930489 41200225 39750224 39450489 

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