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Mesoscale Discussion 708
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0708
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1105 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ME

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 261605Z - 261800Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL
   BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS ME AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
   ADVANCES SWD ACROSS THIS REGION.  COVERAGE OF STRONGER STORMS SHOULD
   BE LOW SUCH THAT WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. 
   HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY CHANGE IN
   COVERAGE POTENTIAL AND THE NEED FOR A WW.

   DISCUSSION...A BACKDOOR SURFACE FRONT...CURRENTLY HAVING MOVED SWD
   INTO FAR NRN ME AND EXTENDING WNWWD INTO SRN QUEBEC...SHOULD HAVE
   THE GREATEST SWD MOVEMENT ACROSS ME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THIS
   REGION WILL BE LOCATED BENEATH STRENGTHENING NWLY FLOW ALOFT.  THE
   ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF THE FRONT AS BEEN GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING
   THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MUCAPE STILL LESS THAN 500 J/KG.  THERE HAS
   BEEN SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PER WNWLY WINDS ADVECTING
   SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S FROM SRN QUEBEC INTO ME AHEAD OF
   THE FRONT.  HOWEVER...GENERALLY WEAKER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS
   MUCH OF THIS REGION...ASIDE FROM FAR NRN-ERN ME WHERE 700-500 MB
   LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 7 C/KM PER 12Z CAR SOUNDING...SHOULD LIMIT
   STRONGER DESTABILIZATION.  SURFACE HEATING SHOULD STEEPEN LOW-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES SOME...AND STRENGTHENING NWLY WINDS /50-70 KT AT 500 MB/
   AS A MIDLEVEL CLOSED LOW SHIFTS E TO THE N OF ME WILL ENHANCE BULK
   SHEAR FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION.  THUS...A FEW STORMS WILL BE
   CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL APPROACHING 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND
   STRONGER WIND GUSTS WHERE SURFACE HEATING IS MAXIMIZED.

   ..PETERS/CORFIDI.. 05/26/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

   LAT...LON   46487007 46446902 46836794 46726773 45856760 45496745
               44906796 44736878 44816970 44997038 45257068 46487007 

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Page last modified: May 26, 2014
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