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Mesoscale Discussion 708
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0708
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0507 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...EDWARDS PLATEAU AND ADJACENT RIO GRANDE VALLEY AREA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 202207Z - 202300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS IN THE PROCESS OF INCREASING AND
   INTENSIFYING...AND LIKELY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR SEVERE
   WIND GUSTS AND HAIL INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  A WW PROBABLY WILL BE
   ISSUED WITHIN THE HOUR.

   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED...SUSTAINED AND INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
   WEST OF SAN ANGELO APPEARS TO HAVE FORMED TO THE IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE
   OF THE SOUTHWARD ADVANCING SURFACE FRONT.  HOWEVER...PROPAGATION OF
   THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS INCREASINGLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE LIGHT WEST
   SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW...AND INCREASINGLY PARALLEL TO A
   SEGMENT OF THE FRONT ALONG WHICH ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT FURTHER UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH INTO
   THE EVENING HOURS.

   OTHER DISCRETE INTENSE STORMS CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG THE
   SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS...AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN
   TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER.  AS A WEAK UPPER
   IMPULSE CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST
   SOUTHWEST...FAVORABLE MID/UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
   STORM MAINTENANCE.  EVENTUALLY...IN THE PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR...MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND SIZABLE
   MIXED LAYER CAPE...ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE WHILE SPREADING
   ACROSS THE DEL RIO AREA.

   ..KERR/CORFIDI.. 05/20/2015


   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   29790334 31240262 31299965 29949916 29100080 29790334 

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Page last modified: May 20, 2015
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