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Mesoscale Discussion 709
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0709
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0720 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 210020Z - 210145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A MARGINAL THREAT FOR AN
   ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST AND/OR LARGE HAIL REPORT THIS EVENING. WW
   NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST WSR-88D MOSAIC DEPICTS A BROKEN BAND OF
   CONVECTION PROGRESSING SE ACROSS SERN AL AND THE FAR WRN FL
   PANHANDLE AS OF 00Z. ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
   DEVELOPED ALONG A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THIS
   CONVECTIVE BAND. WITH THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE BUOYANCY AND FAIRLY
   RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /AS SAMPLED BY THE 00Z TLH
   RAOB/...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   AFOREMENTIONED BAND /AS WELL AS THE SEA BREEZE FRONT/ WILL LIKELY
   AID NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BEFORE NOCTURNAL COOLING PROMOTES
   SIGNIFICANT BL STABILIZATION. HOWEVER...QUITE WEAK DEEP-LAYER FLOW
   /WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 25 KT/ WILL BE
   DETRIMENTAL TO THE ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE OF ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
   AS SUCH...ANY THREAT FOR MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS
   SHOULD BE QUITE LIMITED SPATIALLY AS WELL AS TEMPORALLY WITH THE
   LOSS OF INSOLATION/LACK OF FOCUSED SYNOPTIC SUPPORT. THUS...WW
   ISSUANCE WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

   ..PICCA/CORFIDI.. 05/21/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   32408541 32218508 31638500 30618485 30198489 30178501
               30158548 30448640 30538686 30788692 31158704 31598661
               31958598 32408541 

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Page last modified: May 21, 2015
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