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Mesoscale Discussion 710
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0710
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0739 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...EDWARDS PLATEAU...ADJACENT AREAS OF RIO GRANDE
   VALLEY...INTO S CNTRL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 192...

   VALID 210039Z - 210215Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 192
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL CONTINUES WITH STRONGER STORMS
   DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EDWARDS
   PLATEAU...TOWARD THE HILL COUNTRY...THIS EVENING.  AN INCREASING
   RISK FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS REMAINS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCATTERED VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
   SOUTH/WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER IS REMAINING GENERALLY CONFINED
   TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  HOWEVER...AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
   ACTIVITY HAS OCCURRED ALONG THE FRONT TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE
   INITIAL INTENSE STORMS THAT FORMED NEAR SAN ANGELO.  THE LEAD
   STRONGER STORMS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH OF SAN ANGELO...SUPPORTED
   BY A PERSISTENT AREA OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND MODEST
   INFLOW OF MOIST UNSTABLE AIR THAT APPEARS CHARACTERIZED BY MIXED
   LAYER CAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG.  AT LEAST SOME STRENGTHENING OF
   SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL INFLOW STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...
   WHICH COULD SUPPORT FURTHER UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH ALONG THE I-10
   CORRIDOR...THROUGH JUNCTION BY AROUND 02Z...PERHAPS AS CLOSE TO SAN
   ANTONIO AS KENDALL/BLANCO COUNTIES BY 04Z.  IF THIS OCCURS...IT
   PROBABLY WOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
   SURFACE GUSTS...IN ADDITION TO A CONTINUING RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL.

   ..KERR.. 05/21/2015


   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   30910060 30899987 30679890 30209867 29949943 30360048
               30270150 30210335 30800212 30910060 

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Page last modified: May 21, 2015
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