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Mesoscale Discussion 710
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0710
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0505 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR/FAR WESTERN TN/EASTERN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 242205Z - 250030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
   EASTERN PERIPHERY /FAR SOUTHEAST MO AND NORTHEAST AR/ AND SOUTHERN
   PERIPHERY /NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL AR/ OF THE ORGANIZED
   EASTWARD-MOVING MCS WHICH ENCOMPASSES SOUTHEAST MO TO NORTHERN AR. 
   PORTIONS OF THIS AREA FROM CENTRAL AR INTO FAR EASTERN OK MAY NEED
   AN UPGRADE TO GREATER SEVERE PROBABILITIES AND A SLIGHT RISK
   CATEGORY.   WW ISSUANCE IS BEING CONSIDERED.

   DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN MCS WITH AN EMBEDDED MCV
   TRACKING TO THE EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
   THIS COMPLEX...WHICH HAS REMAINED THE MOST ACTIVE WITH NEW TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT...ACROSS NORTHERN AR.  DESPITE EARLIER VWP AT
   SPRINGFIELD MO SHOWING A VEER-BACK-VEER WIND PROFILE WITH MODEST
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...THE WIND FIELDS /POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY THE MCV
   CIRCULATION/ APPEAR TO BE RESULTING IN STRONGER EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
   OF 35-40 KT FROM EASTERN OK TO FAR WESTERN TN.  MEANWHILE...
   S/SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED THE SOUTHERN
   FLANK OF THIS MCS WITH A RATHER MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   ENVIRONMENT /GIVEN MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J PER KG/.  

   BULK SHEAR VECTORS ARE GENERALLY ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN AR...SUGGESTING EMBEDDED LINEAR STRUCTURES WILL
   BE THE PRIMARY STORM MODE...THOUGH SUPERCELLS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. 
   LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH STEEP
   LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT.

   ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE TRAILING OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL OK...WITH THE EXPANDING AREA OF
   COOLING CLOUD TOPS LOCATED IN NORTHWEST AR.  THIS AREA IS CLOSER TO
   THE STRONGER INFLOW OF MOIST AIR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY.  STORMS
   MOVING EAST FROM SOUTHEAST MO AND NORTHEAST AR SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY
   MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EASTWARD EXTENT INTO FAR
   WESTERN KY/WESTERN TN.

   ..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 05/24/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...TSA...

   LAT...LON   34519136 34319195 34249274 34409359 34669433 34979466
               35459467 35839309 36049213 36209156 36379077 36029025
               35479018 35199026 34719079 34519136 

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