Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 711
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 711 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0711
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0244 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN AND SWRN TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 261944Z - 262045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   WITH WW ISSUANCE LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF WRN AND SWRN TX.  HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...THOUGH A TORNADO
   THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

   DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN EARLY-MID AFTERNOON RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED
   TSTMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE FROM PARMER COUNTY TX TO ANDREWS COUNTY
   TX WHERE RELATIVELY GREATER SURFACE HEATING HAS OCCURRED BENEATH AN
   INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING EWD FROM NM INTO W TX. 
   THIS LATTER ASCENT IS ATTENDANT TO THE NEXT LOBE OF VORTICITY/
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE SLOW
   EWD TRACKING CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER THE NM/TX BORDER.  LOW-LEVEL
   E/SELY WINDS WERE GENERALLY WEAK SUGGESTING A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR
   A TORNADO THREAT...BUT VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH A BAND
   OF 35-50 KT WSWLY 500 MB FLOW EXTENDING FROM SRN NM/FAR SW TX INTO
   NW TX IS ENHANCING EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.  

   ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP SSEWD ALONG A DRY LINE LOCATED OVER
   THE ERN EXTENT OF THE TRANSPECOS REGION WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT HAS
   BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE.  ONE STORM HAS FORMED IN SRN PECOS
   COUNTY TX WITHIN AN UPSLOPE REGIME OF MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR.
   LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF THIS BOUNDARY AND EXTENDING NWD TO A
   TRIPLE POINT NEAR 35 WNW MAF BENEATH THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALOFT
   WILL SUPPORT NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
   BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

   ..PETERS/CORFIDI.. 05/26/2014


   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   31410240 32120280 32840290 33420257 34020163 34100094
               33530074 32530046 31180018 30630031 30190107 30400252
               31410240 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 26, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities