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Mesoscale Discussion 711
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0711
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0614 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX/OK PANHANDLES...SWRN KS

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 203...

   VALID 242314Z - 250045Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 203 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS
   FROM SWRN KS INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO LIKELY
   WITH THESE STORMS.

   DISCUSSION...TORNADO THREAT IS INCREASING ACROSS W-CNTRL AND SWRN KS
   IN ASSOCIATION WITH MATURING SUPERCELLS. EARLIER TORNADO-PRODUCING
   STORM ACROSS SCOTT/LANE COUNTIES KS HAS UNDERGONE SEVERAL MERGERS
   AND HAS EVOLVED INTO AN EWD MOVING CLUSTER...BUT IS STILL EXHIBITING
   EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS. THE HIGHEST NEAR-TERM TORNADO THREAT WILL
   REMAIN CENTERED NEAR KDDC TO N OF KLBL...WHERE THE INTERSECTION OF
   AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH THE DRYLINE IS POSITIONED. VWP DATA FROM
   KDDC SHOW A CURVED HODOGRAPH WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE
   FOR A TORNADO THREAT. 

   ADDITIONAL STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FARTHER SWD ALONG/E OF THE
   DRYLINE INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. THE AIR MASS IS EXTREMELY
   UNSTABLE HERE /NEAR 4000 J/KG OF MLCAPE/...BUT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
   WEAKER. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AFTER 00Z
   SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING TORNADO POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
   DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.

   ..ROGERS.. 05/24/2016


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...

   LAT...LON   38639913 37419901 34989976 34760134 34890174 35580185
               37500090 38630083 39100059 39259983 38999938 38639913 

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