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Mesoscale Discussion 711
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0711
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1052 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...EDWARDS PLATEAU...ADJACENT AREA OF RIO GRANDE
   VALLEY...INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 192...

   VALID 210352Z - 210515Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 192
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF
   HOURS...BUT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN GENERAL APPEARS TO BE
   DIMINISHING.

   DISCUSSION...UPDRAFTS APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING...WITH STORM TOPS
   COLLAPSING TO THE NORTHWEST OF ROCK SPRINGS...THOUGH STRONG WIND
   GUSTS MAY REMAIN POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
   NEAR/WEST THROUGH SOUTHWEST OF ROCK SPRINGS THROUGH 04-05Z.  THERE
   HAS BEEN SOME RECENT INTENSIFICATION IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
   EVIDENT WITHIN RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA TO THE EAST OF JUNCTION. 
   AND FURTHER CONSOLIDATION AND UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH WITHIN A
   ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE NORTHWEST OF SAN
   ANTONIO MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THROUGH AROUND 04-06Z.  AS
   THIS OCCURS...HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING COULD STILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   ANOTHER DOWNBURST OR TWO...ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG SURFACE GUSTS. 
   OVERALL THOUGH...LARGELY DUE TO GENERALLY WEAK DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW
   AND MORE MODEST SHEAR ACROSS AND EAST OF THE HILL COUNTRY... SEVERE
   WEATHER POTENTIAL SEEMS LOW ENOUGH THAT A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   ..KERR.. 05/21/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   29880068 30620017 30849924 31129775 30149719 28989826
               29380028 29880068 

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Page last modified: May 21, 2015
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