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Mesoscale Discussion 712
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0712
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0708 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 211208Z - 211315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH THE TSTM COMPLEX MOVING SSEWD
   THROUGH THE REGION.  A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR DATA INDICATE SOME
   INTENSIFICATION AND FORWARD ACCELERATION TO A CLUSTER OF STORMS
   LOCATED JUST WEST OF LRD AS OF 12Z.  THE INFLOW AIR MASS TO THIS
   ACTIVITY IS VERY MOIST WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
   70S AND MLCAPE ESTIMATED IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE.  AND WHEN
   COUPLED WITH A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH 30-35 KT OF
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT THE SSEWD
   CONTINUATION OF THESE STORMS...AS SUGGESTED BY RECENT
   CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE.  

   ANY ASSOCIATED DAMAGING WIND AND/OR HAIL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
   REMAIN CONFINED TO ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE WITH THE
   LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE LIKELY PRECLUDING THE NECESSITY OF A WATCH.

   ..MEAD.. 05/21/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...

   LAT...LON   27339949 27559941 27429884 26809830 26459808 26149798
               26099818 26449906 27339949 

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Page last modified: May 21, 2015
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