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Mesoscale Discussion 712
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0712
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0327 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MT / NWRN ND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 262027Z - 262200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG A WARM FRONT OVER NERN MT
   AND MOVE ENEWD INTO NWRN ND.  A LARGE HAIL/ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST
   MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED SE TO NW
   ARCING BAND OF CUMULUS --DELINEATING THE WARM FRONT LOCATION-- FROM
   SWRN ND NWWD TO A STORM IN EXTREME NE MT.  A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX IS
   FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE SRN PORTIONS OF
   ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN AND GLANCE THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
   THE EVENING.

   A CAPPED BUT MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE MT/ND BORDER REGION
   RESIDES NE OF THIS BOUNDARY WHILE A WARMER AND WELL-MIXED AIRMASS IS
   SERVING AS THE INITIATION ZONE FOR POTENTIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT TO
   THE W OVER NERN MT.  MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS YIELD A CORRIDOR OF
   MODERATE BUOYANCY /1500-2500 J PER KG SBCAPE/ ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL
   ZONE.  ADEQUATELY STRONG WSWLY 4 KM FLOW /40 KT/ SAMPLED BY THE GGW
   VWP WILL CONDITIONALLY SUPPORT SUPERCELL ORGANIZATION AND A LARGE
   HAIL THREAT AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST WITH ANY
   STRONG/SUSTAINED STORM.  UNLESS SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE BECOMES
   EVIDENT...THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE PERCEIVED THREAT WILL PROBABLY
   PRECLUDE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE.

   ..SMITH/CORFIDI.. 05/26/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW...

   LAT...LON   48610525 49120461 49090203 48340155 47670224 47170400
               47550519 48610525 

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Page last modified: May 26, 2014
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