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Mesoscale Discussion 712
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0712
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0646 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST CO/NORTHWEST KS/FAR SOUTHWEST NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 242346Z - 250115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL NEED TO BE COORDINATED SHORTLY
   FOR THE REST OF NORTHEAST CO INTO NORTHWEST KS AND FAR SOUTHWEST
   NEB.

   DISCUSSION...STRONGER SURFACE HEATING AND NORTH/NORTHWESTWARD
   MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO NORTHWEST KS AND NORTHEAST CO TO FAR
   SOUTHWEST NEB HAS RESULTED IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION DOWNSTREAM OF
   THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN NORTHEAST CO TO THE SOUTHERN
   EXTENT OF THE NEB PANHANDLE.  THE STRONGEST STORM IN THIS COMPLEX IS
   LOCATED IN SOUTHERN MORGAN COUNTY AND WAS MOVING TO THE EAST AT 25
   KT...AND SHOULD EXIT WW 203 BY 01Z INTO YUMA COUNTY CO.  THE DRYLINE
   WAS ANALYZED FROM GREELEY COUNTY KS NORTHWEST THROUGH CHEYENNE
   COUNTY CO TO NEAR THE STORM IN MORGAN COUNTY.  A STRENGTHENING
   E/SELY INFLOW OF MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
   AREA WILL ALLOW THE MORGAN STORM AND ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO
   SPREAD EAST OF WW 203 THIS EVENING...AND POSSIBLY TO THE SOUTHEAST
   ALONG THE DRYLINE.  AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED ALONG
   THE SELY LLJ...FURTHER ENHANCING THE TORNADO THREAT.

   ..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 05/24/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...

   LAT...LON   39740421 40970380 40990208 40870131 40240102 39570066
               39150083 38700170 39510264 39740421 

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