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Mesoscale Discussion 713
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0713
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1111 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL AND ERN NC / SC GRAND STRAND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 211611Z - 211745Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS.  AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND A WATCH
   WILL STRONGLY BE CONSIDERED.

   DISCUSSION...SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A LOW 30 MI W
   SOP WITH A WEST-EAST ORIENTED WARM FRONT AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT
   ACROSS THE SC PIEDMONT.  A PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE/SURFACE TROUGH
   EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SEWD THROUGH THE GRAND STRAND VICINITY. 
   OBSERVATIONS TO THE E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND LOCATED WITHIN THE
   WARM SECTOR SHOW TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 80 DEG F WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
   DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AND AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST. 
   SUPER RAPIDSCAN VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A BUILDING TCU FIELD
   IMMEDIATELY E OF THE LOW AND ALONG THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH/CONFLUENCE.
    
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING IMPLIES A WEAK LEAD
   DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS W-CNTRL NC AHEAD OF THE MID MS VALLEY
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO APPROACH THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS LATER
   TODAY.  IT SEEMS THE WEAK UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE
   LEAD IMPULSE COUPLED WITH ADDITIONAL DIABATIC HEATING WILL ERODE THE
   CAP OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AND SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE IS PROBABLE
   BY THE 18-19Z TIMEFRAME.  

   VEERING AND A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL
   SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION ONCE A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS BECOME
   ESTABLISHED.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT MODERATE BUOYANCY AS OF 16Z
   ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AND THIS SHOULD FAVOR STORM INTENSIFICATION
   OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ONCE INITIATION COMMENCES.  ISOLD LARGE
   HAIL AND DMGG WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.  DESPITE TEMPERED
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...A TORNADO MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF A
   SUPERCELL CAN DEVELOP AND FAVORABLY TRACK ALONG THE WARM FRONT.

   ..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 05/21/2015


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...

   LAT...LON   35267979 36097844 36297643 35847549 34977597 33737851
               33897960 34497991 35267979 

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Page last modified: May 21, 2015
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