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Mesoscale Discussion 713
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0713
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0541 PM CDT Sat May 13 2017

   Areas affected...portions of the northern NE Panhandle...Black
   Hills...northeast WY...southeast MT

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 132241Z - 132345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Localized severe gusts/marginally severe hail are possible
   for the next several hours.  A severe thunderstorm watch will likely
   not be needed.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite/radar mosaic imagery show a bubbling
   cumulus field/thunderstorms developing over the north-central High
   Plains.  The convection is located within a environment featuring
   large temperature-dewpoint spreads.  A large-scale mid-level trough
   located over the Pacific Northwest features a 65-kt 500 mb speed
   maximum (50-kt sampled by the KRIW VAD) while a ridge is located
   downstream over the middle MO Valley northward into the southern
   Prairie provinces.  Steep lapse rates from the surface through
   500-mb will support evaporative cooling potential, especially with
   the more robust cores.  Localized gusty winds emanating from the
   rain-cooled downdrafts may exceed 60 mph in areas.  Stronger 0-6 km
   shear is generally located from the Black Hills westward owing to
   the influence of the approaching speed max.  Weak updraft rotation
   may occur with the strongest storms and may yield a marginally
   severe hail risk.  Expect this activity to weaken by the mid-evening
   hours as diurnal cooling and lessening instability reduce the
   overall storm threat.

   ..Smith/Guyer.. 05/13/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...

   LAT...LON   45080647 46090550 45880387 44250239 42410256 42300336
               42590396 44110429 44670495 45080647 

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Page last modified: May 13, 2017
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