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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0713
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0437 PM CDT TUE MAY 05 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA...COASTAL PLAINS OF SC/NC
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 244...
VALID 052137Z - 052230Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 244
CONTINUES.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH EXPIRES AT 22Z. A THREAT MAY EXIST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NC FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A NEW WW IS POSSIBLE.
HEIGHT FALLS ARE NOTED ACROSS NC AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE...WHICH HAS CONTINUED TO PROVIDE FAVORABLE LIFT FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN A MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. A
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL/DMGG WINDS...AND ISOLD
TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT...MAY EXIST
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE THE WAVE PASSES AND HEIGHT RISES
BEGIN TO LIMIT MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION. VAD WIND PROFILE DATA
REFLECTS FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS FOR ROTATING STORMS. AREA IS BEING
MONITORED...AND A NEW WW MAY BE ISSUED.
FARTHER S ACROSS GA/SC...PREVIOUS CONVECTION THAT HAS PRODUCED
SEVERE WEATHER EARLIER HAS TRANSITIONED PRIMARILY INTO A HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT AS MEAN WIND HAS BECOME ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO
THE LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. AREAS TO THE S AND E OF CURRENT
CONVECTION THAT ARE NOT RAIN COOLED AND REMAIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE
MAY SUPPORT ISOLD SEVERE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...AS THE MAIN SHORT
WAVE MOVES OFFSHORE...HEIGHT RISES MAY TEMPER MORE SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT.
..HURLBUT.. 05/05/2009
ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...
LAT...LON 32448016 31168184 31868275 33268161 34678015 36047911
36187761 35207691 34007804 32448016
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