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Mesoscale Discussion 715
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0715
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0651 PM CDT Sun May 14 2017

   Areas affected...far southwestern SD...southeastern WY...NE

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 142351Z - 150045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A hail/wind risk may develop with a few storms this
   evening.  The expected coverage of severe and overall magnitude of
   the threat will likely preclude a severe thunderstorm watch.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a couple of storms developing in
   Platte County in southeastern WY.  Surface analysis indicates
   easterly upslope flow with temperatures in the lower 70s degrees F
   and dewpoints ranging from the upper 30s west to middle-upper 40s
   east across the discussion area.  Water-vapor imagery suggests a
   low-amplitude shortwave trough is moving northeast from eastern UT
   into southern WY early this evening.  The glancing influence of this
   mid-level perturbation may continue to aid in storm development over
   the next several hours before boundary-layer cooling and diurnal
   stabilization become more hostile for additional storm
   development/intensity.  In the meantime, expected a couple of
   thunderstorms to intensify and yield a localized hail/wind risk
   during the early evening.

   ..Smith/Guyer.. 05/14/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   42020525 42590515 43390423 43470340 43250275 42690269
               41610384 41620497 42020525 

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