MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0715
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0415 PM CDT THU APR 24 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/WRN OK...NWRN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 242115Z - 242345Z
   
   CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE IS INDICATIVE OF WEAKENING
   CINH. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS IF DEEPER
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS NOTED.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY WARM TEMPERATURES /LOWER-MID 90S/ IN
   THE WAKE OF A DRYLINE THAT EXTENDS FROM WRN WOODS COUNTY SWD TO JUST
   WEST OF FSI TO HASKELL COUNTY TEXAS. 19Z OUN SOUNDING SHOWED LITTLE
   REMAINING CINH BASED ON A SFC-BASED PARCEL OF 89/64 DEG F. A FEW
   MESONET SITES IN SCENTRAL OK INDICATE CONDITIONS NEAR THIS WHERE
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS LESS THAN 25 J/KG OF MLCINH AT 21Z.
   ATTM...THE GREATEST NEGATIVES TOWARDS TSTM INITIATION OVER
   CENTRAL/WRN OK IS THE LIMITED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE AND
   LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF AN EARLIER SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
   RECENT WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF SYNOPTIC SCALE VERTICAL
   MOTION WAS STILL OVER THE WRN TX PANHANDLE/SWRN KS. SEVERAL MORE
   HOURS OF DOWNWARD OR NEUTRAL VERTICAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE...WITH
   CONVECTIVE INITIATION HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AS LIMITED VERTICAL MOTION IS
   EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG/AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE PRIOR TO LOSS OF
   DAYTIME HEATING. IF ANY TSTM DOES DEVELOP DUE TO PRIMARILY SFC
   CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE
   AROUND 2500 J/KG/ WILL COMBINE WITH MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR /35-40
   KTS/ TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL-TYPE TSTMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/DMGG
   WINDS.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 04/24/2008
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...
   
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