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Mesoscale Discussion 716
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0716
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0533 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SWRN NM AND FAR WRN TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 212233Z - 220030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR
   A FEW LARGE HAIL REPORTS AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING.
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...AS OF 22Z...THE LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
   WSR-88D MOSAIC DEPICT AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF SWRN NM...WITH ONE DOMINANT CELL /E OF ONM/ DISPLAYING
   SOME SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS. INDEED...KABX DATA AROUND 2156Z
   SUGGESTED A PARTICULARLY ROBUST HAIL CORE...WITH A CLEAR TBSS AND
   SIDELOBE CONTAMINATION PRESENT IN DUAL-POL FIELDS. THESE CELLS
   APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO FORCING FROM ASCENT FROM A
   NEWD-EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NWRN MEXICO/SRN AZ. WHILE A
   POLAR AIR MASS TO THE EAST OF A STATIONARY FRONT HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
   LIMITED THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF STRONGER DESTABILIZATION...CLEARING
   ACROSS SRN NM AND FAR WRN TX HAS PROMOTED A NARROW CORRIDOR WITH
   TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. AS
   THIS CORRIDOR IS ON THE EDGE OF A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES TO THE WEST...MLCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG HAVE
   MATERIALIZED...WITH THE WIDEST ZONE OF A SUPPORTIVE THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT LIKELY EXISTING OVER FAR S-CNTRL NM/FAR WRN TX.
   CONSIDERING THE ARRIVAL OF THE EJECTING IMPULSE APPEARS TO BE
   WELL-TIMED WITH PEAK INSOLATION...THIS AREA MAY OFFER THE GREATEST
   POTENTIAL FOR LONGER-LASTING STRONG CONVECTION.

   MOREOVER...FAVORABLE VEERING OF WINDS IN THE LOWEST 3 KM /EVIDENCED
   BY THE LATEST KEPZ VWP/ SUGGESTS UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/ROTATION IS
   POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION...FURTHERING THE POTENTIAL
   FOR LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS. AS SUCH...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
   BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE EARLY THIS EVENING.

   ..PICCA/CORFIDI.. 05/21/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   31450457 30690417 30480434 30450487 30730517 31670638
               31750669 31780804 31830828 33190841 34490874 34740840
               34880765 34720702 33790613 32700521 31450457 

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Page last modified: May 22, 2015
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