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Mesoscale Discussion 716
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0716
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0618 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX INTO SWRN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 262318Z - 270045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG-MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
   THIS EVENING WITH A RISK FOR HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE
   THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF A N-S-ORIENTED BAND OF TSTMS FROM KIOWA
   COUNTY OK INTO WILBARGER AND NRN BAYLOR COUNTIES TX...NEAR THE
   INTERSECTION OF A COUPLE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE LOCAL
   ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY A RELATIVELY WARM...MOIST BOUNDARY
   LAYER WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG ESTIMATED BY LATEST RAP-BASED
   GUIDANCE.

   STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
   THE EVENING AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/DCVA STRENGTHENS AHEAD
   OF THE EWD-MOVING UPPER LOW. WHILE ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF HAIL AND
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS --AND EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO-- ARE
   POSSIBLE...LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAGNITUDE WILL REMAIN
   RATHER WEAK OWING TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER
   /REF. CURRENT FREDRICK OK WSR-88D VAD/.

   ..MEAD.. 05/26/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...

   LAT...LON   33789933 34409928 35159899 35209854 34969832 33909840
               33559853 33429892 33559927 33789933 

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Page last modified: May 27, 2014
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