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Mesoscale Discussion 716
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0716
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0915 AM CDT Mon May 15 2017

   Areas affected...southeast sd...southwest mn...northwest ia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 151415Z - 151545Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorm clusters will spread east along the
   MN/IA border this morning.  Gusty winds and small hail are possible.

   DISCUSSION...Remnants of late evening convection, that developed
   near the Black Hills of SD around 03z, have progressed into
   southeast SD where an MCV appears to have developed within an
   expanding cluster of thunderstorms.  This activity is gradually
   maturing within a weakly forced low-level warm advection regime
   characterized by marginal instability but steep mid-level lapse
   rates.  12z observed soundings do not suggest the air mass ahead of
   this evolving MCS is particularly unstable but this cluster of
   storms should propagate east along the MN/IA border.  Gusty winds
   and small hail are the primary threats and unless this activity
   becomes stronger than currently anticipated a WW is not warranted.

   ..Darrow/Kerr.. 05/15/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   43929762 43979484 43029428 42309516 42879657 43339779

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