MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0716
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0719 PM CDT TUE MAY 05 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL TX
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 247...
   
   VALID 060019Z - 060145Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 247 CONTINUES.
   
   19-00Z FWD SOUNDING COMPARISON SUGGEST THAT THE BASE OF THE EML HAS
   RISEN ALMOST 800 FT AGL WITH ABOUT 20 J/KG SBCINH.  USING A PARCEL
   CHARACTERIZED BY SFC CONDITIONS FARTHER W INVOF KABI EASILY BREAKS
   THIS CAP.  EARLIER ATTEMPTS AT A SUSTAINED STORM FAILED...PROBABLY
   GIVEN STRONGER CAP CLOSER TO THE KMWL AREA.  HOWEVER...SUSTAINED
   INITIATION HAS COMMENCED FARTHER W ALONG A LLVL CONVERGENCE ZONE IN
   STEPHENS COUNTY WITH TCU NOTED ON VSB SATL THROUGH KABI TO NEAR
   SWEETWATER.  H7-H5 LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8.5 C/KM AND THE 60 KTS
   OF BULK SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL
   AND DMGG WIND GUSTS.  STORM MOTION FAVORS A TRACK ALONG/SOUTH OF THE
   WRMFNT LOCATED JUST N OF I-20.  HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES
   SHOULD OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING IN A REGION BOUNDED BY A
   KMWL-GRANBURY-STEPHENVILLE-BRECKINRIDGE-KMWL LINE. WHILE THIS
   ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST THROUGH LATE EVENING OVER THE ERN BIG
   COUNTRY...FAR NRN HILL COUNTRY...EXPECT ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL FORM
   LATER TONIGHT...AFT 06Z...OVER NWRN TX/SWRN OK AND MOVE SEWD INTO
   NRN TX.
   
   ..RACY.. 05/06/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...LUB...
   
   LAT...LON   32850050 33199962 33309762 31819760 31459869 31770071
               32850050