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Mesoscale Discussion 717
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0717
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0248 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 221948Z - 222145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SWRN TX BY
   21Z. STORMS MAY DEVELOP SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WIND AND A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE. A WW WILL PROBABLY NOT
   BE NEEDED UNLESS IT BEGINS TO APPEAR STORM COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER
   THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG DIABATIC WARMING HAS BOOSTED SFC TEMPERATURES
   INTO THE 80S WITHIN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN
   THE 50S TO LOW 60S. CUMULUS HAS BEEN INCREASING OVER THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP OVER THE
   DAVIS MOUNTAINS BEFORE 21Z. WV IMAGERY...RAP PFCS AND 12Z OBSERVED
   SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN AREA OF SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR ALOFT OVER THIS
   REGION THAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS SUGGESTS
   CONVECTION WILL EXPERIENCE CONSIDERABLE ENTRAINMENT AS UPDRAFTS
   DEVELOP...POSSIBLY LIMITING STORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
   NEVERTHELESS AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
   WITHIN THE MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE
   BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG BASED ON LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. VEERING
   LOW-LEVEL WINDS BENEATH 30-40 KT FLOW ALOFT IS PROMOTING EFFECTIVE
   BULK SHEAR FROM 40-50 KT OVER MUCH OF THIS REGION...SUPPORTIVE OF
   SUPERCELLS. 

   WHILE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL PROBABLY REMAIN ISOLATED...THERE IS
   SOME CHANCE FOR GREATER COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING AS THE LLJ
   STRENGTHENS AND MID-LEVELS MOISTEN IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
   APPROACHING SRN STREAM IMPULSE MOVING ENEWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO.

   ..DIAL/GOSS.. 05/22/2015


   ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   30800401 31190312 31120228 30520190 30000195 29820267
               29070313 29370391 30180425 30800401 

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Page last modified: May 22, 2015
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