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Mesoscale Discussion 717
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0717
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0902 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL SD...NWRN AND N-CNTRL NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 250202Z - 250300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SVR WIND/HAIL THREAT MAY EXIST FOR THE NEXT
   2-3 HRS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL SD AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEB. A WW IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF TSTMS HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED
   PER RECENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL SD...WITH A
   HISTORY OF PRODUCING ESTIMATED 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. NEW TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT S OF THIS AREA HAS RESULTED IN CONGEALING INTO A NEARLY
   CONTINUOUS CONVECTIVE LINE INTO NWRN NEB. THE 25/00Z SOUNDING FROM
   ABR AND LBF SAMPLED VERY STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT MEAGER
   BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AND GENERALLY WEAK FLOW IN THE LOWEST 2 KM
   AGL. THESE LIMITING FACTORS WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A MORE
   WIDESPREAD/SUBSTANTIAL SVR THREAT...BUT THE NRN FRINGE OF A
   STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL LLJ IMPINGING INTO THIS AREA SHOULD CONTINUE
   TO SUPPORT PERSISTENCE OF A MARGINALLY SEVERE MCS INTO THE EARLY
   MORNING.

   ..ROGERS/EDWARDS.. 05/25/2016


   ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

   LAT...LON   44479918 43069969 42490015 42240080 42160180 42180246
               42440285 43690236 44510138 44810015 44479918 

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