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Mesoscale Discussion 717
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0717
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0738 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 270038Z - 270145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH NCNTRL TX THIS
   EVENING AND A WW EAST OF TORNADO WATCH 188 APPEARS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...AN EXPANSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE
   SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM SWRN OK THROUGH WRN TX NEAR ABILENE AND SWD
   TO NEAR JUNCTION...MOVING WEST. THE STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH A VORTICITY MAXIMUM ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF AN
   UPPER LOW REMAIN ACROSS WRN TX WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE IS MORE
   UNSTABLE. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN STABILIZED SOMEWHAT ACROSS N-CNTRL
   TX IN WAKE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE THE FORT WORTH 00Z RAOB
   INDICATES MLCAPE BELOW 500 J/KG. STORMS ARE APPROACHING THE ERN
   FRINGE OF WW 188 NEAR ABILENE...BUT TREND SHOULD BE FOR ACTIVITY TO
   WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES INTO THE MORE STABLE REGIME EAST OF THE OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY. MOREOVER...THE SFC LAYER OVER NCNTRL TX WILL UNDERGO
   FURTHER STABILIZATION WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.

   ..DIAL/MEAD.. 05/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

   LAT...LON   31149848 32419910 33349884 33409799 32309783 31199792
               31149848 

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Page last modified: May 27, 2014
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