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Mesoscale Discussion 718
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0718
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0348 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017

   Areas affected...northern ia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 152048Z - 152215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong thunderstorms may develop across northern
   Iowa late this afternoon into the evening hours.  Large hail and
   damaging winds are the primary threats.  WW may be required by 23z.

   DISCUSSION...Early-day MCS that moved across SD has progressed into
   WI aided in part by weak low-level warm advection.  Short-range
   model guidance has struggled with this activity, likely due to weak
   forcing, with multiple disjointed surface boundaries possibly being
   influential later this evening for renewed development.

   Latest satellite imagery suggests a mid-level vort max may be
   approaching the Missouri River northwest of OMA.  Ahead of this
   feature, mid-level convection is gradually thickening and isolated
   elevated thunderstorms are now evident ahead of the vort stretching
   into northern IA.  While boundary-layer cu is focused along the
   southern-most outflow across central IA, there appears to be
   sufficient CINH across this region such that deep convection may
   struggle.  Current thinking is deep convection will focus north of
   the southern-most outflow with a gradual upward trend possible into
   the evening hours.  Hail and wind are the primary threats with this
   slowly evolving activity.

   ..Darrow/Kerr.. 05/15/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   42319595 43429405 43569240 43059198 42619300 41749537

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