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Mesoscale Discussion 718
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0718
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0337 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL CO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 222037Z - 222200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SVR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
   THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL
   CO. SOME THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND A
   WEAK TORNADO OR TWO...MAY DEVELOP. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
   POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...DIABATIC HEATING IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING MIDLEVEL
   CYCLONE IS OCCURRING AS AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT SHIFTS N TO NEAR THE
   I-70 CORRIDOR AS OF 20Z. WHILE CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED HEATING
   ACROSS MUCH OF EAST-CENTRAL CO...TEMPERATURES ARE QUICKLY RECOVERING
   AND WARMING INTO THE 60S...AMIDST MID-40S TO LOW-50S DEWPOINTS.
   VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW AN INCREASING TOWERING CU FIELD ALONG/E
   OF THE FRONT RANGE...WITH A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS EVOLVING ACROSS ELBERT
   AND EL PASO COUNTIES. 

   A CORRIDOR OF 200-500 J/KG MLCAPE VALUES EXISTS FROM COS/PUB
   EWD...AND FURTHER DESTABILIZATION MAY RESULT IN THESE VALUES
   APPROACHING 1000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. 30-40 KT OF MIDLEVEL FLOW
   IS YIELDING AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR
   SUPERCELLS. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS QUITE WEAK /PER PUX AND FTG VWP DATA/
   WHICH IS LIKELY TO LIMIT ANY TORNADO THREAT INITIALLY...BUT SELY SFC
   WINDS SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE EVENING AS A WEAK SFC LOW DEEPENS
   OVER S-CNTRL CO. 

   THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING SVR POTENTIAL ARE THE MARGINAL
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE
   POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS
   A WEAK TORNADO OR TWO...MAY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS...AND
   COULD REQUIRE ISSUANCE OF A WW.

   ..ROGERS/GOSS.. 05/22/2015


   ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   39520424 39400339 39130268 38440228 37700256 37430413
               37920537 38880549 39330513 39520424 

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Page last modified: May 22, 2015
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