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Mesoscale Discussion 719
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0719
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0706 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SW TEXAS INTO SERN NEW MEXICO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 230006Z - 230200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THIS
   EVENING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING RISK FOR SEVERE WIND
   GUSTS AND HAIL THAT COULD REQUIRE A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED INTENSE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOW WELL
   UNDERWAY ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AREA OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS...TO THE
   SOUTHWEST OF FORT STOCKTON.  MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO
   THE HIGHER TERRAIN HAS CONTRIBUTED TO LOCALLY ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE WHICH IS SUPPORTING THIS ACTIVITY...IN THE PRESENCE OF
   SIZABLE MIXED LAYER CAPE /2000-3000 J PER KG/.  IT REMAINS A BIT
   UNCLEAR WHAT INFLUENCE THE LOSS OF BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING THROUGH
   THE 01-03Z TIME FRAME WILL HAVE ON THIS CONVECTION.  BUT DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR IS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FOR SUPERCELLS...AND SUBSTANTIVE
   STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW TO 40+ KT IS FORECAST THROUGH
   LATE EVENING.  THIS COULD HELP MAINTAIN CONVECTION...OR PERHAPS
   SUPPORT THE INITIATION OF ADDITIONAL STORMS NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
   OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS
   GRADUALLY BEGIN TO FALL WITH THE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
   UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

   ..KERR/CORFIDI.. 05/23/2015


   ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   30310366 31210412 31970483 33390505 33510386 32640336
               31940216 30590243 30250337 30310366 

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Page last modified: May 23, 2015
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