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Mesoscale Discussion 719
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0719
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0834 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN ND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 270134Z - 270230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A PAIR OF INTERACTING SUPERCELLS ARE PERSISTING ACROSS WRN
   ND...AND WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DMGG WIND
   GUSTS...AND A TORNADO OR TWO FOR THE NEXT 1-3 HRS. GIVEN THE VERY
   LOCALIZED NATURE OF THE THREAT...A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...A PAIR OF INTERACTING SUPERCELLS OVER MCKENZIE AND DUNN
   COUNTIES ND...WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND A
   TORNADO...CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SEWD AT AROUND 20 KT. THESE STORMS
   ARE BEING MAINTAINED WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS CHARACTERIZED
   BY LOW-60S F DEWPOINTS. MODIFIED 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM BIS AND
   GGW...ALONG WITH RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS...ESTIMATES 2000 J/KG OF
   SBCAPE IS PRESENT DOWNSTREAM. AND DESPITE THE LIKELY PRESENCE OF
   WEAK LOW-LEVEL WINDS /PER MBX VWP DATA/...SELY SFC WINDS VEERING TO
   WLY IN MIDLEVELS ARE YIELDING SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR FOR PERSISTING SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING A
   TORNADO. 

   THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO IN THE NEAR-TERM WILL BE
   DEPENDENT ON STORMS ABILITY TO MAINTAIN DISCRETE CHARACTERISTICS.
   HOWEVER...WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND RESULTANT BOUNDARY LAYER
   STABILIZATION...THESE THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY
   03-04Z...REMAINING LOCALIZED THROUGH THAT TIME PERIOD.

   ..ROGERS/MEAD.. 05/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BIS...

   LAT...LON   46890314 47220345 47680367 47870363 47970333 47990283
               47820240 47600208 47390196 47030184 46850238 46890314 

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Page last modified: May 27, 2014
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