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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0720
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1103 PM CDT TUE MAY 05 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OK...NRN TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 060403Z - 060600Z
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND PROFILER PLOTS INDICATE THAT IN ADDITION TO
THE VORT MAX MOVING EWD THROUGH NCNTRL TX...A SUBTLE MID-LEVEL WAVE
WAS EMERGING ACROSS NERN NM/WRN TX PNHDL. LATTER FEATURE IS FCST TO
TRANSLATE INTO THE RED RVR VLY LATER TONIGHT WITH A CONCOMITANT
INCREASE IN THE SWLY LLJ OVER CNTRL TX. INCREASING ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ALONG/N OF THE W-E WRMFNT SITUATED ACROSS N TX INVOF I-20
WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING BANDS/CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED
TSTMS ACROSS SRN OK AND NRN TX LATER TONIGHT...PROBABLY AFTER
06-08Z. SRN EDGE TO THE SVR RISK WILL LIKELY RESIDE ALONG/N OF I-20
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF STRONGER CINH.
00Z OUN/FWD SOUNDINGS EXHIBITED VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM H7-H5
AND BUOYANT LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS YIELDING
LARGE HAIL...POSSIBLY GREATER THAN GOLFBALL SIZE. HOWEVER...VERY
LATE TONIGHT...AS STORM NUMBER INCREASES AND A LARGER SCALE COLD
POOL CAN EVOLVE...ANY NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT CLOSER TO THE WRMFNT IN
THE RED RVR VLY/N TX WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS.
A SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...GENERALLY ALONG/N OF I-20 NWD INTO PARTS OF SRN OK IN THE
NEXT 2-3 HOURS.
..RACY.. 05/06/2009
ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 33619544 33099618 32989709 32999804 33059851 33069864
33789929 34179928 34589834 35029699 35169595 35059503
33619544
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