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Mesoscale Discussion 720
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0720
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1235 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM...WRN PANHANDLE/S PLAINS OF TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 230535Z - 230730Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL
   AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD...ALTHOUGH STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS AND A
   TORNADO OR TWO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE /ESPECIALLY OVER SERN NM/.

   DISCUSSION...PROBABLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORM HAS QUICKLY TURNED
   SUPERCELLULAR IN DE BACA COUNTY NM. ADDITIONAL STORMS TO THE S/SW
   WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY THROUGH AT LEAST 07Z FED BY ROBUST LOW-LEVEL
   THETA-E ADVECTION AND THE LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
   OVERSPREADING THE REGION DOWNSTREAM OF THE AZ/UT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. 
   THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINING SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE
   OVER SERN NM THROUGH ABOUT 08-09Z ALONG THE NWRN EXTENT OF THE GULF
   MOISTURE PLUME CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEW
   POINTS. ALTHOUGH DOWNSTREAM BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS
   ANTICIPATED INTO TX...INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INTO A CLUSTER
   MODE SHOULD DELETERIOUSLY EFFECT THIS DESTABILIZATION AND SHOULD
   MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CHARACTER. THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO IS
   SUPPORTED BY SHORT-TERM CAM GUIDANCE WITH MOST INTENSE CONVECTION IS
   SIMULATED DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF DEVELOPMENT.

   ..GRAMS/HART.. 05/23/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   34560411 35050336 35440254 35430186 34790166 34190179
               33150264 32870327 32830421 33070498 33680491 34560411 

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Page last modified: May 23, 2015
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