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Mesoscale Discussion 720
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0720
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1043 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 206...

   VALID 250343Z - 250515Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 206 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO
   THE EAST OF TORNADO WATCH 206...AS A BROKEN BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
   STORMS MOVES TO THE EAST INTO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.

   DISCUSSION...TRENDS MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A LONG-LIVED
   SUPERCELL BEING SUSTAINED LATE THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES OUT OF
   NORTHEAST CO INTO SOUTHWEST NEB WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING A COUPLE
   OF TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL /3.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER IN
   NORTHEAST YUMA COUNTY/.  MEANWHILE...THE POLEWARD-EXTENDING BAND OF
   STORMS HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVED AWAY FROM FAR
   NORTHEAST CO AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN NEB PANHANDLE.  THE AIR MASS EAST
   OF THESE STORMS THROUGH EAST OF WW 206 /TOWARD GREELEY COUNTY NEB
   AND WEBSTER COUNTY KS/ REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH A SLY LLJ
   EXTENDING FROM WEST TX THROUGH WESTERN KS INTO WESTERN NEB. 
   INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND FORCING FOR ASCENT INTO
   SOUTHWEST NEB ATTENDANT TO THE LLJ WILL SUPPORT EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
   THE ONGOING BROKEN BAND OF STORMS.  THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THESE
   STORMS IN THE EASTERN PART OF WW 206 /APPROACHING WESTERN LINCOLN
   COUNTY NEB/ WAS TRACKING EAST AT 35 KT WHICH IS SUFFICIENT TO
   SUPPORT A DAMAGING-WIND THREAT.

   THE WESTERN KS LLJ IS EXPECTED TO VEER TO SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT...
   SUSTAINING AN EASTWARD MOVEMENT INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NEB THROUGH
   06-08Z.  FARTHER EAST...THIS BAND OF STORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO BE
   MAINTAINED AS COOLER...MORE STABLE AIR SPREADS TO THE NORTH INTO THE
   KEARNEY...HASTINGS AND GRAND ISLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL NEB
   FROM THE LARGE KS MCS.

   ..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 05/25/2016


   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...

   LAT...LON   40140147 40850106 41680093 41539841 40049824 40039866
               39949983 40010081 40140147 

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Page last modified: May 25, 2016
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