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Mesoscale Discussion 720
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0720
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0911 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL AND SERN MT

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 270211Z - 270315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED THREAT FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS LARGE
   HAIL...WILL EXIST INTO THE LATE EVENING HRS ACROSS S-CNTRL AND SERN
   MT. COVERAGE OF THE THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO
   WARRANT A WW.

   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
   OF S-CNTRL MT HAVE PERSISTED INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF S-CNTRL MT. A
   TSTM CLUSTER WAS APPROACHING THE BILLINGS AREA AS OF 02Z...WITH BASE
   VELOCITY DATA INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR
   WINDS. A SEPARATE DISCRETE STORM WAS PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS PRAIRIE
   COUNTY MT...WITH WDSS-2 MESH ALGORITHM DATA INDICATING THE POTENTIAL
   FOR SVR HAIL. 

   WIND POTENTIAL...ENHANCED BY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OBSERVED IN
   THE 00Z GGW SOUNDING...ALONG WITH MODERATELY STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW
   WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND THREAT FOR THE NEXT
   2-3 HRS ACROSS S-CNTRL AND SERN MT. THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
   SHOULD LEAD TO A MORE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
   BY LATE EVENING.  HAIL THREAT SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED DUE TO MEAGER
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND BUOYANCY...BUT REMAINS LOCALLY ENHANCED WITH
   STRONGER DISCRETE STORMS.

   ..ROGERS/MEAD.. 05/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...

   LAT...LON   45580449 45210664 45270901 45620918 46080898 46490772
               47150597 47260500 47120441 46800409 45580449 

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Page last modified: May 27, 2014
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