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Mesoscale Discussion 721
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0721
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0538 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN TX PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 231038Z - 231215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY PARTS OF AN MCS
   CROSSING THE PANHANDLE THROUGH MID-MORNING...BUT OVERALL LONGEVITY
   OF THE RISK APPEARS TO BE LIMITED.

   DISCUSSION...AMALGAMATING TSTM CLUSTERS HAVE YIELDED A QLCS FROM
   SHERMAN TO PARMER COUNTIES. WITH MEASURED WIND GUSTS AROUND 65-70
   MPH REPORTED BY MESONET OBS NEAR THE BOWING PORTION OF THE LINE
   AROUND AMARILLO...THE COLD POOL HAS BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
   SEVERE GUSTS PENETRATING THE NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER THAT LIKELY LIES
   FROM ABOUT I-40 NWD. WITH THE SFC WARM FRONT STILL OVER THE LOW
   ROLLING PLAINS...THIS EWD-PROPAGATING BOWING STRUCTURE SHOULD WEAKEN
   IN THE PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE AIR MASS LIKELY PRESENT OVER THE
   E-CNTRL TX PANHANDLE. 1-MIN IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS MAY ALREADY BE
   UNDERWAY AS THE AREAL EXTENT OF COLDEST CLOUD TOPS HAS BEGUN TO
   DECREASE IN THE PAST HALF HOUR. BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANOTHER
   SMALL-SCALE BOW COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE TRAILING SWRN FLANK OF THE
   LINE AS IT SHIFTS EWD CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT.

   ..GRAMS/HART.. 05/23/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   36180152 36290089 36210028 35930003 35199999 34400075
               34310121 34250272 34380289 34570287 35030173 35590149
               36180152 

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Page last modified: May 23, 2015
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