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Mesoscale Discussion 722
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0722
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1217 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SWRN OK...TX SOUTH PLAINS...NWRN TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 231717Z - 231945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL
   AND TORNADOES. THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WATCH PRIOR TO 20Z.

   DISCUSSION...MESOANALYSIS AT 17Z REVEALS A WARM FRONT ACROSS SRN
   PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE EXTENDING EWD ALONG THE RED RIVER
   VALLEY. PERSISTENT TSTMS NORTH OF THE WRN EXTENT OF THE WARM FRONT
   HAVE RESULTED IN LITTLE NWD MOVEMENT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. SOUTH
   OF THE FRONT...1-MINUTE VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS GRADUALLY DEEPENING
   CUMULUS AS HEATING OCCURS WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WITH SFC DEW
   POINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. 

   HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE-SCALE UPPER
   TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE DISCUSSION AREA DURING THE
   AFTN HOURS. TSTMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG A SHARPENING
   CONFLUENCE AXIS EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND WITHIN A
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE/WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
   SUPPORT ORGANIZED TSTMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...HOWEVER WITH NUMEROUS
   TSTMS EXPECTED OVER TIME...CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS MAY ULTIMATELY
   EVOLVE. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LCLS AND 0-3 KM SRH OF 150 TO 300
   M2/S2 WILL SUPPORT A TORNADO RISK NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE WARM
   FRONT...AND DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

   CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN THE SHORT TERM
   AND A WW IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 20Z.

   ..BUNTING/GOSS.. 05/23/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   33759891 33199958 33170093 33370199 33690266 33970266
               34530271 35070258 35050193 34880153 34730090 34879996
               35379890 35429845 34929828 34149872 33759891 

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Page last modified: May 23, 2015
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