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Mesoscale Discussion 722
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0722
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1145 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 270445Z - 270545Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT COULD
   AFFECT LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE BY 0600-0630Z. GIVEN THE
   ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT...A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...AS OF 0435Z...RADAR DATA INDICATED A LONG-LIVED
   SUPERCELL LOCATED WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE...APPROXIMATELY 45 MILES
   SOUTHEAST OF LAREDO...MOVING 305/20 KT. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE CURRENT
   MOTION SUGGESTS THAT THIS STORM COULD IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
   ZAPATA INTO WESTERN STARR COUNTY BY 0600-0630Z WITH A RISK FOR LARGE
   HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS
   WHETHER THE STORM WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY DUE TO
   INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DE-COUPLING
   BOUNDARY LAYER.

   ..MEAD.. 05/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BRO...

   LAT...LON   26349871 26389884 26429905 26579914 26719919 26799904
               26749873 26599850 26399833 26239839 26349871 

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Page last modified: May 27, 2014
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