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Mesoscale Discussion 723
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0723
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0127 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN CO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 231827Z - 232030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR STORMS IS
   EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF
   CNTRL/ERN CO. THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH
   ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A STRONG UPPER TROUGH N
   OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AIDED IN EARLY CONVECTIVE INITIATION
   ALONG AND JUST E OF THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING. THE AIR MASS
   DOWNSHEAR FROM ONGOING CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING AS
   TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 60S F. SFC OBS SHOW RELATIVELY MOIST
   CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE HIGH PLAINS WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 50
   F...AND WILL AID IN MLCAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 500-1000 J/KG IN THE
   NEXT FEW HRS. STRONG BUT GENERALLY DIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL
   SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS /WITH A TENDENCY FOR STORM SPLITS/ GIVEN A
   DISCRETE MODE. SFC WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE BACKED ALONG/N OF I-70
   WHICH COULD SUPPORT THE RISK FOR ONE OR TWO BRIEF TORNADOES.
   HOWEVER...THE PREDOMINANT RISKS APPEAR TO BE HAIL AND STRONG WIND
   GUSTS. 

   A SLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILE WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN NUMEROUS
   STORM INTERACTIONS AND AN EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO A CLUSTER OR
   QUASI-LINEAR MODE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD ENHANCE AN
   ACCOMPANYING WIND THREAT. HOWEVER...THIS COULD ALSO BE A LIMITING
   FACTOR FOR A LONGER DURATION HAIL/TORNADO THREAT...ESPECIALLY WITH A
   MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT PRESENT ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH
   PLAINS. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

   ..ROGERS/GOSS.. 05/23/2015


   ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   40420260 38560225 37240261 37130436 37620465 38580471
               39420504 40430414 40420260 

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Page last modified: May 23, 2015
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