MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0723
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0244 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK...FAR NWRN AR AND FAR SERN KS
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 188...
   
   VALID 200744Z - 200945Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 188 CONTINUES.
   
   SUMMARY...ISOLATED HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH STORMS
   CURRENTLY LOCATED IN OSAGE COUNTY OK...AND TO THE N OF WW 188 IN FAR
   SERN KS.  HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT AS WELL AS STORMS SHOULD
   CONTINUE TO TRAIN ENEWD FROM NWRN-NRN OSAGE COUNTY THROUGH THE FAR
   SERN KS COUNTIES /FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL DETAILS...REFER TO
   THE MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSIONS ISSUED BY WPC/.
   
   DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED THE STORMS THAT
   WERE AFFECTING NERN OK AT THE ISSUANCE OF WW 188 ARE NOW MOVING EWD
   THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL MO. THE ATTENDANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   EXTENDED SWWD THROUGH WRIGHT TO TANEY COUNTIES MO...AND THEN WSWWD
   THROUGH FAR NWRN AR INTO NERN OK TO THE NORTH OF KTUL TO PAWNEE
   COUNTY.  A STABILIZED BOUNDARY LAYER HAS GREATLY REDUCED THE TORNADO
   THREAT...WHILE STRONGER ELEVATED STORMS LOCATED IN NRN OSAGE COUNTY
   OK TO THE FAR SERN KS COUNTIES POSE AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT.
   
   CYCLONIC MIDLEVEL WINDS AND 500 MB TEMPS AOB -15 C WILL CONTINUE TO
   SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH 8 C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE
   RATES.  STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA PER A VEERING SLY 60-70 KT LLJ WILL
   MAINTAIN TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 12Z FROM NRN OSAGE COUNTY OK INTO
   FAR SERN KS. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR EXCEEDING 50 KT WILL SUPPORT STORM
   ORGANIZATION WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL GIVEN
   FAVORABLE CLOUD LAYER THERMODYNAMICS. RECENT RADAR TRENDS IN OSAGE
   COUNTY INDICATED THE WRN MOST STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE ENEWD...
   SUGGESTING THIS MAY BE IN RESPONSE TO A VEERING TREND OF THE LLJ TO
   SWLY PER AREA VWPS.
   
   ..PETERS.. 05/20/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...
   
   LAT...LON   36339465 36189659 36419696 37049683 37329588 37459477
               37389459 36339465